PMI of manufacturing industry fell in October

On October 31, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and China Federation of logistics and purchasing jointly released data. In October, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 49.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. It failed to continue the rebound momentum of the previous month and was below the boom and bust line for six consecutive months. From the perspective of the classification index, production keeps expanding and market demand falls. In October, the manufacturing production index was 50.8%, down 1.5 percentage points from last month, indicating that manufacturing production continued to expand, but the pace of expansion slowed down. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 13 are in the expansion range, while the manufacturing indexes of textile, clothing, paper printing, computer communication equipment and other manufacturing industries are in the higher boom range of over 55.0%. In terms of demand, the new order index was 49.6%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and the market demand weakened.

At the same time, the foreign trade market is operating at a low level, and the price index has fallen. Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the service industry investigation center of the National Bureau of statistics, analyzed that the new export order index and import index of the manufacturing industry were 47.0% and 46.9%, respectively 1.2 and 0.2 percentage points lower than last month, due to the continuous slowdown of the global economy and other factors. The purchase price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials were 50.4% and 48.0%, respectively, down 1.8 and 1.9 percentage points from last month, among which the price indexes of oil, steel, nonferrous and other industries were relatively low. Wen Tao, an expert from China Logistics Information Center, said that in October, despite the fact that the market demand of manufacturing industry fell to a contraction range and the growth rate of enterprise production and procurement slowed down, the economic structure was optimized, new energy and consumer goods industries were expanded rapidly, and employment was relatively stable. Overall, the economic growth slowed down and the quality of development improved. It is worth noting that the transformation and upgrading continue to advance.

Zhao Qinghe introduced that in terms of key industries, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries was 51.4%, 50.3% and 50.8%, respectively, higher than the overall manufacturing industry by 2.1, 1.0 and 1.5 percentage points, all operating in the boom zone. The internal structure of manufacturing industry continues to be optimized, and the basic role of consumption in economic development continues to show. From the perspective of non manufacturing industry, in October, the business activity index of non manufacturing industry was 52.8%, 0.9 percentage points lower than that of last month, continuing to operate in the expansion range. Among the PMI indexes of non manufacturing industry, the expected index of new export orders, orders in hand, inventories and business activities rose from 0.1% to 1.0% on a month on month basis; the index of employees was the same as that of last month; the index of new orders, intermediate input prices, charging prices and distribution time of suppliers declined from 0.1 to 1.5% on a month on month basis. Wu Wei, an expert from China Logistics Information Center, said that due to the fall of demand, market operation activities and prices have been revised back, and the growth rate of non manufacturing industry has slowed down, but the index level of 52.8% indicates that non manufacturing industry still keeps a rapid growth trend.

In October, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.0%, 1.1 percentage points lower than that of last month. From the perspective of future expectations, the expected index of manufacturing production and operation activities in October is 54.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still higher than the average in the third quarter. Among them, the expected indexes of production and operation activities of large, medium and small enterprises are 54.5%, 54.4% and 53%, respectively. According to analysis of Zhang Liqun, researcher of the development research center of the State Council, the expected index of production and operation activities decreased in October, indicating that the enterprise has insufficient confidence in the future market prospect; the index of purchase volume, import volume and purchase price decreased, indicating that the production and operation activities of the enterprise tend to shrink. Through comprehensive study and judgment, the current downward pressure on the economy is further increased. We must strengthen the counter cyclical adjustment of macro policies, actively expand effective domestic demand and investment, and effectively prevent the continuous development of the increasing trend of economic downward inertia.