Port coal prices will fall first and then rise next month

Although at present, with the coming of cold winter, and some ports began to restrict the import of coal, the domestic coal market began to turn for the better; the enthusiasm of the downstream hauling recovered slightly, and the number of coal hauling ships from ports around the Bohai Sea increased. However, the author analyzes that it will take time for the coastal coal market to improve in an all-round way and the port coal price to rise; it is expected that in November, the port coal price will fall first and then rise. First, the plant inventory is still high. At present, it is in the off-season of coal consumption. No matter the national key power plants or coastal power plants, the coal storage is all at a high level. Most thermal power enterprises have more than 25 days of coal storage available. At present, the temperature in South China is on the high side, while the climate in East China is suitable, the civil power load is on the low side, and the daily consumption has not increased significantly; most of the power plants are in the consumption and inventory stage, and there is no large amount of replenishment. Secondly, severe cold has not yet arrived.

As winter approaches, the pessimistic atmosphere in the coal market still exists, and the purchase demand of power plants has not improved; the downstream counter offer price is relatively low, and the delivery of goods generally floats down slightly according to the index, which further reduces the transaction price in the port market; the price index and the actual transaction price have declined in turn, but there is no sign of stabilizing and stopping the decline for the time being. Again, the restriction of import has not been fermented. The import coal will still be indispensable for coastal power plants, even if there are many risks in the future, such as limited quota, long customs clearance time and limited import coal. At present, China's coastal areas are still the main market for Australian coal, and Indonesian coal and Russian coal are also strongly supplemented. Guangzhou, Fuzhou and other coastal ports and some ports in the river have successively restricted the import of coal, but the degree of influence is limited, so they have not played a role in the market trend for the time being. In November, after entering the winter storage and heating season, the coal consumption in the north will increase; with the advent of cold air, the air conditioning load in East China will also increase. With the further decline of power plant inventory, the weakening of hydropower and the increase of thermal power pressure, the enthusiasm of domestic coal transportation will increase; the domestic coastal market will turn to the balance of supply and demand, the demand will enter the recovery channel, which will help the port market coal price to stop falling and stabilize, and is expected to rise in the middle and late November.