November Refinery Petroleum Coke Market Trends Decline

December 6th News

According to the commodity analysis system, the price of petroleum coke from local refineries declined in November, but rebounded at the beginning of December. The average price of medium-sulfur petroleum coke products from major local refineries in China was 2,603.25 CNY/ton on December 5, compared to 2,823.25 CNY/ton on November 1, representing an overall decrease of 7.79%.

On the cost side: In November, international crude oil prices experienced volatile downward trends. In the first half of the month, the market weighed the impact of oversupply risks and, with the U.S. government shutdown expected to end, economic and demand prospects improved, driving up international oil prices. In the middle of the month, the U.S. proposed a new plan to restart peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, easing geopolitical risk concerns and causing international oil prices to fall. In the latter half of the month, rumors emerged that Ukraine had agreed to the U.S.-proposed new peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, further easing geopolitical anxieties and leading to another drop in international oil prices.

Supply side: In November, the price of petroleum coke from local refineries in China fell. In the first ten days of the month, the price of petroleum coke remained stable, with good demand from downstream enterprises at the beginning of the month and low inventory levels supporting the market. In the middle of the month, the price of petroleum coke from local refineries slightly declined, with prices fluctuating. Recently, some refineries have adjusted their specifications, leading to noticeable changes in the price of coke. Downstream procurement was still acceptable, providing support to the market, and refinery shipments were also satisfactory. In the last ten days of the month, the price of petroleum coke from local refineries significantly dropped, with refineries facing difficulties in shipments, leading them to lower the price of petroleum coke. Additionally, some refineries adjusted their specifications, resulting in significant changes in the coke price. The downstream purchasing sentiment became more cautious, providing limited support to the market, and refinery transactions were poor. In November, imported petroleum coke mainly fulfilled previous orders, with limited new orders signed, and prices decreased.

On the demand side: In November, the overall supply of metallurgical-grade silicon declined somewhat. Although some plants in northern regions increased production, a significant reduction in operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan markedly lowered the overall supply of metallurgical-grade silicon, easing supply-side pressure in the market for the month. Downstream demand for metallurgical-grade silicon remained generally subdued, with buyers continuing to adopt a cautious approach. Downstream companies largely maintained a wait-and-see attitude, mostly placing low-ball inquiries for purchases. Overall, the demand side showed a relatively relaxed stance. The silicon industry continues to show interest in the market for petroleum coke.

In November, the market for medium and high sulfur calcined coke in China declined, mainly due to a reduction in the price of upstream petroleum coke. Downstream buyers were mostly holding back, leading to cautious pricing by calcined coke companies.

In November, the electrolytic aluminum market first rose and then fell. China’s operating capacity for electrolytic aluminum has reached 44.06 million tons, approaching the policy red line of 45 million tons. The capacity utilization rate remains high, and most of the newly added capacity consists of replacement projects—for example, Xinjiang Qiya Aluminum & Electricity’s 210,000-ton replacement capacity will not be commissioned until the end of 2026. As a result, there will be no new capacity added at all in December. Downstream carbon products used in aluminum production continue to rely primarily on rigid demand from the petroleum coke market.

Market Forecast: As we enter December, the price of petroleum coke from independent refineries has stopped falling and begun to rebound. Downstream manufacturing companies still have demand for petroleum coke, with rigid demand-driven procurement remaining the dominant trend. Additionally, the benchmark price for pre-baked anode purchases by a certain aluminum plant in Shandong has risen for December 2025, which is positive for the petroleum coke market. However, some graphite electrode manufacturers are facing production disruptions due to seasonal factors and have plans to temporarily halt operations, potentially leading to reduced demand for petroleum coke. Therefore, it is expected that the petroleum coke market will likely experience narrow fluctuations in the near term.