Moving coal trend depends on long-term coal power negotiation?

On November 5, the port's inquiry for high-quality and low calorific value coal increased slightly, but the downstream counter-offer was on the low side. Some of the high-quality and low calorific value Mongolian coal prices were explored, the market mentality was different, and the wait-and-see increased. On November 5, the mainstream price of cv5500 power end coal was about 500-555 yuan, and the mainstream price of cv5000 power end coal was about 480 yuan. On November 5, the price of CCI power coal in the latest phase of China coal resources network showed that the price of cci5500 power coal was 552 CNY/ton, 3 CNY/ton lower than that of the previous period, 35 CNY/ton or 6.0% lower than that of the same period last month; the price of cci5000 power coal was 480 CNY/ton, 5 CNY/ton lower than that of the previous period, 37 CNY/ton or 7.2% lower than that of the same period last month. According to Yang Jie, researcher of Yimei Research Institute, the stock of power plant will continue to rise, and the winter stock market has been hard to expect. In addition, this year, the national development and Reform Commission has taken a series of measures to reduce the general industrial and commercial price, and proposed that the benchmark feed in price of coal power should be changed to "benchmark price + floating up and down" from next year to ensure that the average industrial and commercial price will only fall but not rise, and will not rise temporarily in 2020.

The policy will further increase the difficulty of power plant operation, and the power plant will probably take measures such as increasing the proportion of imported coal procurement, striving for the price preference negotiated by the Coal Power Association, etc. to strengthen the control of coal procurement cost. Therefore, the upcoming coal power long-term agreement negotiation will have a greater impact on the market. From the perspective of power plant inventory, the inventory of key power plants and six coastal power plants has recovered. With the current inventory level and daily consumption, the normal long-term cooperative procurement of the power plant has basically been able to meet the demand, and the storage space is limited. As of November 6, the inventory of six major coastal power plants was 16.779 million tons, with a weekly to environmental ratio increase of 229000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 241000 tons; the daily coal consumption was 561000 tons, with a weekly to environmental ratio decrease of 18000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.8 tons; the available days were 29.9 days, with a weekly to environmental ratio increase of 1.3 days, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4 days. Through a domestic trader, China coal resources network learned that the market situation still hasn't improved. It's all about buying up and not buying down. The customer just inquires for price and has no order. At present, the price is quoted according to CCI report. Now, the customer only understands the market price and doesn't sell goods temporarily. It's expected that the short-term coal price will drop again. In terms of producing areas, the overall sales of coal mines in the main producing areas did not improve, and coal prices continued to decline. Some power plants in Yulin area of Shaanxi Province have low haulage capacity, and the demand of coking plants in the territory is reduced. After the price reduction of coal mines, the output of foam coal is slightly improved, the sales of lump coal is poor, and some coal mines still have plans to further reduce the price. Jinmeng area is greatly affected by the port market, and the platform shipping is general. At present, the local shipping is mainly carried out by some large groups, and the procurement enthusiasm of small and medium-sized traders is poor, the coal mine shipping is not improved significantly, the inventory is under pressure, the coal price is down 10-20 yuan, and the trend of the port needs to be watched later.