Recently, the price of heavy soda ash has remained at a low level of 1090 CNY/ton. The average difference indicator shows a trend of positive convergence. Additionally, the 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year cycles are all in a low range, indicating that the room for further decline is very limited. In the short term, it may enter a phase of consolidation with a slightly stronger bias. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the supply of upstream industrial salt and raw salt, as well as the demand for downstream products such as glass and baking soda, on market trends.
I. Mean Difference Analysis
1. Mean Difference Change Table
| Average Difference Type | Value on August 13 | Value on August 12 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 0.00 | 0.00 | Flat |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 0.00 | 0.00 | Flat |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | -19.07 | -22.22 | Up |
2. Signal Status Determination
The current situation is a resilience warning (bullish) signal in a volatile market, with the 20-day average difference converging towards zero, indicating increased price resilience and gradually emerging support at lower levels.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The price trend is volatile (with a bullish bias), reason: the direction of change in the three mean differences from the previous day is not entirely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear trend and falls into the category of volatility; among them, the 20-day mean difference has narrowed, showing a resilient and slightly bullish characteristic.
4. Positional Spatial Reference
The price of heavy soda ash is in the low range for 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year periods, with limited room for decline and a solid foundation for bottom support.
II. Industry Chain Association Alerts
Upstream related products in the soda ash industry chain: industrial salt and raw salt. Downstream related products: soda ash, anhydrous sodium acetate, sodium thiosulfate, anhydrous calcium chloride, trisodium citrate, sodium bromide, sodium bisulfite, sodium fluoride, sodium nitrate, sodium hexametaphosphate, sodium tripolyphosphate, sodium nitrite, sodium hypochlorite, sodium pyrosulfite, bromine, xylitol, aluminum oxide, disodium hydrogen phosphate, trisodium phosphate, cryolite, sodium bicarbonate, water glass, glass, borax. Changes in supply and demand upstream and downstream will directly affect the market trend of soda ash in China.
3. Trend Chart Display
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
