11 coal giants jointly propose to ensure supply and price stability

Near the end of the year, 2020 electricity coal price negotiation enters a critical period. It is more than a week before the opening of the 2020 winter national coal trade fair on December 4. On November 25, 11 Chinese coal giants, such as State Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd., made a joint "voice" to propose to ensure supply and price stability. Industry insiders believe that the current coal supply and demand are generally loose, but the northeast, southwest, two lakes and one river and other regions are in the peak period of coal consumption or tense situation. According to the plan, next year's industrial structural optimization will increase, eliminate backward production capacity, and promote merger and reorganization. In the future, the proportion of production of large-scale modern coal mines in China will become larger and larger. Electric coal annual negotiation enters into the key period of setting, just as in previous years. In the electric coal contract negotiation in 2020, price is still the focus of both parties' attention and game.

The proposal jointly issued by 11 Chinese coal enterprises proposes to fully implement national policies and measures to stabilize the market, continue to adhere to and continuously improve the pricing mechanism of capacity reduction and replacement, peak shaving and emergency capacity reserve, medium and long-term contracts and "base price + floating price", minimum and maximum inventory, suppress abnormal price fluctuations and enterprise credit evaluation, etc., so as to ensure that the coal price remains green Operation in section. "The coal medium and long-term contract system and the pricing mechanism of" base price + floating price "have become the ballast and stabilizer for the stable operation of the coal industry." Zhang Hong, Secretary of Discipline Inspection Committee of China Coal Industry Association, introduced at the press conference of 2020 winter national coal trade fair on November 25 that since 2017, the medium and long-term contract price has been around 570 CNY/ton, currently 553 CNY/ton, and the market price has remained in the green range. This year, more than 70% of the electricity and coal contracts are signed by China Changsha Coal Industry Association, among which there are not a few long-term contracts in three years, and the basic price is 535 CNY/ton.

From the situation in the previous three quarters, the performance rate is more than 90%. The proposal stressed that we should establish the concept of long-term development and coordinated development, adhere to the medium and long-term contract signing as the top priority of marketing work, and adhere to the medium and long-term contract pricing mechanism of "base price + floating price". The signed three-year medium and long-term contracts should adhere to the principle of good faith operation, fulfill social responsibilities, strictly perform coal sales contracts, and further improve the fulfillment rate of medium and long-term contracts. Carry out the coal production and transportation in 2020 as soon as possible, sign more and more medium-term and long-term contracts, strive to create a good social atmosphere of honesty and trustworthiness, and lay a solid foundation for building a harmonious and win-win community of common destiny for upstream and downstream coal enterprises. Zhaikun, an analyst at Guotai Junan, said that by the end of the year, most of the coal mines in Shaanxi and Mongolia had begun to actively shrink their production capacity by means of shutdown, overhaul and other means. In addition to the safety inspection, the release of short-term supply side had been narrowed.

From the perspective of demand, with the arrival of heating season, the daily consumption of power plants began to rise seasonally, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level, and there is no upward pressure on the spot coal price. According to the latest situation of each index, the long-term cooperative price of 5500 kcal power coal in December is 546 CNY/ton, 7 CNY/ton lower than the data in November. Behind the annual price game of electric coal in Northeast, southwest and other regions or the shortage of supply and demand is the judgment of the future coal market trend. "At present, the supply and demand of coal market is generally loose, and next year is basically stable." Zhang Hong said. All these changes have something to do with supply side structural reform. Data shows that from 2016 to the end of 2018, the coal industry has resolved 810 million tons of excess coal capacity, and this year this figure will continue to grow. "Economic reference" reporter learned that many provinces have completed this year's coal capacity reduction task ahead of schedule. Hebei Development and Reform Commission said that from 2016 to 2019, 48.07 million tons of coal had been cut and withdrawn from the province, and the phased tasks were over fulfilled. Shanxi will also complete the provincial acceptance of coal overcapacity reduction by the end of November, when the target of coal overcapacity reduction during the 13th Five Year Plan period is expected to be completed one year ahead of schedule.

Zhang Hong said that the basic balance of supply and demand in the market has been achieved through the effective solution of coal excess capacity. This year, the advanced production capacity of some large mines has been released in succession. From January to October, the national raw coal output reached 3.06 billion tons, an increase of 4.5% year on year. Coal imports reached 280 million tons, up 9.6% year on year. However, the national coal consumption has only increased by 0.8% year-on-year, so the coal supply and demand are generally loose. However, the coal output of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia accounts for nearly 70% of the total coal output of the country. The coal output of northeast, southwest, two lakes and one river areas is relatively low, and the structural tension will inevitably appear in the peak coal consumption. A few days ago, the head of the national development and Reform Commission said that at present, the overall supply and demand of coal in the country is balanced, and the demand for heating coal in Northeast China has increased significantly. In view of the supply of coal resources in Northeast China, since July this year, all relevant departments, local governments and enterprises have started to prepare, take comprehensive measures, implement coal sources and improve the level of coal storage.

At present, the coal storage and utilization days of key power plants in Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang are more than 24 days, 6 to 10 days higher than the same period last year, and the heating coal consumption of residents is better guaranteed. Merger and reorganization continue to push forward with the continuous elimination of excess capacity, coal industrial structure is also constantly optimized. According to the data provided by Zhang Hong, the number of coal mines in China has decreased from more than 12000 in 2015 to more than 5600 at present, and the proportion of large-scale modern coal mines in production has been greatly increased, which is expected to account for about 80% of the total coal production in China. At the same time, great progress has been made in coal merger and reorganization, new industry development, transformation and upgrading, and industry efficiency has picked up. In 2015, the profit of Coal Enterprises above designated size was only 44.1 billion yuan, most of which were in deficit. In the first nine months of this year, the profit of Coal Enterprises above designated size was 216.5 billion yuan, accounting for 70% of the national coal output, which was 112.4 billion yuan. "Next year, coal supply side structural reform will also be promoted.

To achieve real transformation and upgrading, achieve high-quality development, and deepen reform, we must keep going." Zhang Hong believes that next year and during the 14th Five Year Plan period, small coal mines with a production capacity of less than 300000 tons / year will continue to be closed, while some coal mines with a production capacity of less than 900000 tons will be further dried up, and it is expected that the proportion of production of large-scale modern coal mines in China will be larger and larger in the future. It is understood that as of August this year, there are still about 2100 coal mines under 300000 tons / year in China, and the task of eliminating backward production capacity and invalid and inefficient supply is still heavy. According to the work plan for classified disposal of coal mines under 300000 t / a jointly issued by the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of natural resources, the Ministry of ecological environment, the State Energy Administration and the State Administration of coal mine safety, the number of coal mines under 300000 t / A in China will be reduced to less than 800 by the end of 2021. The merger and reorganization of coal will be further promoted. As early as the beginning of 2018, the opinions on further promoting the merger, reorganization, transformation and upgrading of coal enterprises put forward to strive to form a number of mega coal enterprise groups with strong international competitiveness by the end of 2020. This year, several documents, including the key points of coal overcapacity reduction in 2019, have also made it clear that they will continue to promote the strong and strong alliance of large coal enterprises, encourage large coal enterprises to merge and restructure small and medium-sized enterprises, and further improve the standards and production level of mine operation in terms of safety, environmental protection, energy consumption, technology, etc. Industry analysts pointed out that some central enterprises have also begun to withdraw from the relevant coal industry. This part of coal enterprises is expected to undergo integration, merger and reorganization in the future. The merger and reorganization of the coal industry has been accelerated, which is the major trend of future development.