Prediction of trend of power coal at the end of the year

In December, the domestic power coal market as a whole moved slightly. Near the end of the year, the impact of the mine disaster was superimposed simultaneously. The number of coal mines that were shut down in the main production area increased, and the coal supply was slightly tightened. However, the power coal inventory of the downstream power plant was high, and the available days were maintained at more than 20 days. This month, the main purpose was to consume its own inventory, and the demand was flat. The prices of most coal mines in the production area remained stable, and some coal prices rose and fell with each other, ranging from 5-10 CNY/ton. As of December 27, the mainstream price of 5500 kcal power coal market in Ordos, Inner Mongolia was 320 CNY/ton, down 1.54% month on month. The mainstream price of 6000 kcal power coal market in Yulin, Shaanxi Province was 415 CNY/ton, up 2.47% month on month. In terms of northern ports, after the end of the month, with the rapid decline of the port's coal inventory, the supply of high-quality coal is in short supply, and the coal price has slightly increased. Taking 5500 kcal power coal of Qinhuangdao port as an example, the main closing price as of December 31 was 555 CNY/ton, up 0.91% month on month.

Inner Mongolia: the price of power coal in Ordos, Inner Mongolia, fell slightly this month. As of December 31, the tax price of 5500 kcal pulverized coal mainstream pithead was 320 CNY/ton, down 1.54% month on month, and that of 5000 kcal pulverized coal mainstream pithead was 265 CNY/ton, down 1.85% month on month. The price reduction is mainly due to the poor market demand of northern ports in the early stage, the low purchasing enthusiasm of platform and intermediate traders, and the downward pressure on prices. After entering the late ten days, most of the coal mines have completed the annual production tasks, the enthusiasm of production has been reduced, the coal supply is tightening, and driven by the rising coal price in the northern port, the price of individual coal mines has tentatively increased by 5 CNY/ton.

Shanxi area: this month, the price of power coal in Shanxi area is mainly stable. After a coal mine in Datong area, which mainly sells land, entered into December, the tax price of coal pit mouth was reduced by 100 CNY/ton to 320 CNY/ton. The decrease of coal price was mainly due to the change of coal quality, and the calorific value of the coal decreased from 5200 kcal to 4200-4300 kcal. The coal price of a coal mine dominated by water coal remained stable, and the tax included price of 5300 large truck coal car board was 375 CNY/ton. At 0:00 a.m. on December 29, 5 people died in an accident of coal flowing from the 305 coal hole of the coking coal mine of the coal group. According to Zhuo Chuang, the mine is located in Huairen County, Shuozhou City, Shanxi Province. It mainly produces power coal, with an annual production capacity of 1.5 million tons.

Affected by this, 12 subordinate coal mines in Shuozhou City have been shut down, with a total production capacity of 22.6 million tons. The length of shut down of each mine is to be determined. Shaanxi Province: this month, the price of power coal in Yulin, Shaanxi Province, is rising and falling, while the end coal is rising steadily, and the lump coal is under pressure. The price of lump coal is reduced by 10-20 CNY/ton due to poor civil demand. Taking a mainstream mine in Yuyang District as an example, as of December 31, the tax price of lump coal pit mouth is 410 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton on a month on month basis. Driven by the good demand for coking coal and chemical coal, the price of end coal and mixed coal has increased by 10 CNY/ton. As of December 31, the price of 6000 kcal mixed coal pit in Yuyang District, including the tax of 415 CNY/ton, has increased by 10 CNY/ton month on month. After entering the end of the month, the local coal supply continued to tighten. However, due to the early centralized replenishment of the downstream users, the inventory is in the middle and high level, and the enthusiasm for replenishment is not high. Most coal mines maintain the balance of production and sales, and the price is stable.

It is understood that most private coal mines in Yuyang and Hengshan will have a holiday around January 17, and private coal mines in Shenmu and Fugu areas will have a holiday around January 12 before "Yaoshen Festival". Shandong area: this month, Shandong power coal market is stable and down. In the aspect of mine mouth, affected by the poor downstream demand at the beginning of the month, the sales pressure of coal mines is large, and the inventory is rising; since the end of the last ten days, some coal mines have been shut down due to the completion of the production tasks of this year, so as to relieve the inventory pressure at the early stage. In terms of the downstream power plants, the power plants in Shandong Province concentrated on lowering the receiving price of electric coal at the beginning of this month. The daily consumption of the main power plants is mostly driven by the heating task. The power generation load is low. Affected by the high inventory level, the receiving price of electric coal is lowered at the beginning of the month. Affected by the staggered peak production, the daily consumption of some enterprises' own power plants is reduced. In addition, some power plants have maintenance plans near the end of the year, and the inventory digestion speed is reduced. As a whole, except that some enterprises' own power plants have increased the demand price for replenishment, Shandong Province in December The receiving price of coal for power plants owned by local enterprises has been lowered to varying degrees.

In the later stage, near the end of the year, the number of shut-down coal mines increased, and the awareness of the power plant's active de stocking strengthened. It is expected that the price of power coal in Shandong Province will be mainly weak and stable before the year, and the price of coal in late January may continue to be under pressure. East China: coal prices in East China are generally weak and stable this month, and coal prices in some ports are slightly higher than that in the same period last month. In December, the daily consumption of power plants in the lower reaches of East China showed a general performance, and the daily consumption of power plants in many places decreased compared with the same period last year. Under the guarantee of Changxie coal, the enthusiasm of power plant procurement was limited; at the end of the month, affected by the rising coal price of northern ports, the coal price of some ports increased. Taking Ningbo port as an example, as of December 31, the quotation of 5500 kcal domestic coal in Ningbo port was 601 CNY/ton, 6 CNY/ton higher than the price at the end of November; the price of 5000 kcal domestic coal was 537 CNY/ton, 4 CNY/ton higher than the price at the end of November. In the later stage, after new year's day, the import coal will start to pass customs, which will depress the price of domestic trade coal; at the same time, in the middle and last ten days of January, the enterprise will stop production and have holidays, and the power plant will start to reduce the power generation load.

It is expected that the trend of port coal price exploration will not last for a long time, and the coal price in the later stage may be under pressure. Southwest China: this month, there are many coal mine accidents in Southwest China, and the power coal market continues to differentiate and operate. In terms of Sichuan and Chongqing, near the end of the year, the impact of safety accidents was superimposed. In the end of this month, the number of coal mines in Sichuan increased, but North coal continued to enter the Sichuan and Chongqing market. In the middle of the year, the downstream power plants in Sichuan region made up the storage in advance, and the enthusiasm of long-term cooperative transportation increased; however, the end-user and port inventory in Chongqing region were all operating at a high level. As a whole, the power coal market in Sichuan and Chongqing region remained weak and stable this month.

In Guizhou, affected by the increase of output of open-pit coal mines in the middle of the year, when the coal price of the plot was under pressure, there was a drop of about 50 CNY/ton; in the late ten days, after the safety accident of Guanglong coal mine, the coal mines under 300000 tons / year were shut down in Guizhou Province, the local supply was tightened, and the coal price was stable, but the price of power coal for the local coal mines mainly supplying power plants fluctuated little. Affected by the frequent occurrence of safety production accidents, the main coal production areas focus on safety management, and coal production is mainly to ensure safety. The Spring Festival holiday is coming in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, with a large number of production reduction and shutdown coal mines, the coal supply will be tightened. Although the weather turns cold, the inventory of the downstream power plant is at the middle and high level, and the long-term cooperative transportation is still the main way to consume its own inventory. If the import coal is centralized in January, the terminal demand for market coal procurement is weak. Under the situation of tight domestic supply, it is expected that in January 2020, the price of power coal will be stable and fluctuating, and 5500 kcal of Qinhuangdao port power coal will be operated in the price range of 550-560 CNY/ton.