PTA may end the three-year increase of import volume in 2020

According to the estimation of PTA import volume from January to November, China's PTA import volume in 2019 will be around 980000 tons, a new high in nearly four years. The PTA import volume in 2016-2019 will be 4753078980000 tons / year respectively, and the PTA import volume will rise for three consecutive years. In 2020, China's PTA will enter the stage of crazy capacity expansion again. The author expects that in 2020, China's PTA import will end the momentum of three consecutive years of growth. According to the statistics of the author, in 2016-2019, China's PTA capacity increased by 7.8 million tons / year (+ 16.8%) and polyester capacity increased by 12.2 million tons / year (+ 26.4%). In 2016-2019, PTA was in the stage of slow capacity expansion, and the market as a whole mainly digested the crazy capacity expansion in 2012-2014, while the downstream polyester capacity expansion speed was much higher than PTA. In 2017-2019, the annual starting load of polyester was at a high level of 85% - 87%, and the demand for PTA rigidity increased to a certain extent The import of PTA was increased.

In 2020, the theoretical capacity of PTA will be 14.1 million tons / year, while the theoretical capacity of polyester will be only about 5 million tons / year. In 2020, the excess pressure of PTA will be high. In 2020, 14.1 million tons of PTA will be put into operation theoretically. According to the annual average starting load of 76% in 2017-2019 and the average starting capacity of 14.1 million tons per year in 2020 for 6 months and 9 months, the estimated PTA output in 2020 will be between 4846-51.92 million tons per year. The planned new capacity of downstream polyester is about 5 million tons / year. According to the conversion of 60% - 80% of the actual production capacity, the actual new capacity is about 3-4 million tons / year. According to the conversion of 86% of the annual starting load of polyester in recent three years, the theoretical demand PTA in 2020 is about 45.49-46.23 million tons / year. In 2020, the trend of PTA supply exceeding demand is obvious. The author believes that the probability of production loss under PTA excess pressure in 2020 is relatively large, which will force small and medium-sized factories, especially old factories to shut down, while the new large-scale factories will seize the market share of old factories, and the PTA import volume in 2020 will decline significantly.