Is the coking coal from the wind available?

Review on the market of coking coal in 2019. In 2019, with the gradual application of environmental protection equipment in coking enterprises, environmental protection is normalized, and the main theme around the double coke is mainly the pace of capacity removal. At the same time, in the case of supply increase, the unexpected demand side also makes the overall profit of black series better. Therefore, although the annual profit of coking in 2019 is relatively low, it remains profitable throughout the year. Looking back on the whole year, the trend of coking coal is inverted V-shaped. During the first quarter of the Spring Festival, the production of domestic mines was reduced after the completion of the target. In addition, mining accidents in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong and other major production areas continued to occur, and the supply of domestic end was reduced. At the same time, the downstream centralized seasonal replenishment, coking coal inventory increased, coking coal prices continued to be strong. Later, the price of coke fell due to the rapid decline. By the second quarter, the impact of forest fires in Qinyuan County, Shanxi Province, import clearance restrictions, coking coal supply release less than expected. At the same time, coke price goes up, coking profit improves, coking operation rate increases, and coking coal keeps rising under the support of demand. In the third quarter, the overall international demand decreased, and coal prices in Australia fell, which led to a sharp drop in domestic coking coal prices. In 2019, the focus of coking coal price will move down. The production capacity of domestic coal mines has increased steadily. On February 1, 2016, the coking coal increment was limited. The opinions of the State Council on solving the excess capacity of the coal industry and realizing the development of getting rid of difficulties were released, and the work of coal industry's capacity reduction was carried out in an all-round way. In December 2016, the national development and Reform Commission issued the 13th five year plan for the development of the coal industry, which proposed that the main goal is to eliminate the excess and backward production capacity of about 800 million tons / year, increase the advanced production capacity by about 500 million tons / year through reduction, replacement and optimization of layout, and increase the coal production by 3.9 billion tons by 2020. The coal production structure is optimized. The number of coal mines is controlled at about 6000. The output of large-scale coal mines of 1.2 million tons / year and above accounts for more than 80%, and that of small-scale coal mines of 300000 tons / year and below accounts for less than 10%. Up to now, according to the industry Symposium on the fifth anniversary of the new energy security strategy of the national energy administration, China has withdrawn 810 million tons of backward coal production capacity, and completed the target task of "13th five year plan" capacity reduction two years in advance. In 2020, some provinces and cities still fail to achieve their respective capacity reduction targets. Therefore, it is estimated that 40 million tons of capacity will be removed in the later stage. The National Energy Administration announced that by the end of December 2018, there were 3373 production coal mines with complete safety production licenses and other licenses, with a capacity of 3.53 billion tons / year; 1010 coal mines have been approved (approved) and started construction (including 64 simultaneous reconstruction and transformation projects of production coal mines), with a capacity of 1.03 billion tons / year, including 203 coal mines that have been completed and entered the joint commissioning, with a capacity of 370 million tons / year. According to the latest announcement of the national energy administration, by the end of December 2018, the capacity under construction was 1.058 billion tons, of which 372 million tons were put into joint commissioning. The production capacity of the mine under construction mainly consists of four aspects: new construction, resource integration, reconstruction and expansion, and technical transformation. Considering the coal mine construction cycle, it is estimated that the new coal production capacity will reach 92 million tons in 2020. Therefore, the high-quality production capacity will continue to be released in the later stage, but according to the provincial structure of the production capacity in the later stage, it is mainly in Shanxi and Xinjiang of Inner Mongolia. Therefore, the production capacity released in the later stage is mainly power coal mine, with less increase in coke coal production capacity. It is estimated that the new coke coal production capacity will be about 10 million tons. In terms of raw coal output, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, as of November 2019, the total output of raw coal in China was 3.341 billion tons, up 4.5% year on year, indicating that part of the trial operation output has been released, and the growth rate of raw coal output is expected to fall to 2%. In terms of coking coal, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, as of October 2019, the cumulative coking coal output in China was 389 million tons, an increase of 8.47% year on year, and an increase of 30.25 million tons year on year. In the first half of the year, mine accidents occurred in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong and other major production areas, and safety inspections increased under the influence of coal mine safety accidents. At the same time, the inspection in Shanxi was strict in overproduction, and the release of coking coal production was slow. After May, the output gradually released, with a substantial increase year on year. In the fourth quarter, due to the frequent occurrence of coal mine accidents in China, especially in Pingyao coal mine of Shanxi Province, some of the target mines have been shut down and production has been reduced. Generally speaking, the domestic end safety inspection of coking coal has great disturbance. In 2019, the capacity of some domestic coking coal will be released, and in the second half of the year, it will be looser than that in the first half of the year. In terms of provinces, coking coal increment mainly comes from Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Shandong Province, in which Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang are mainly new production capacity, and coking coal in Inner Mongolia region of Xinjiang is mainly digested by local and surrounding provinces' coking plants. From January to October in Shanxi Province, the total output of refined coking coal was 178 million tons, an increase of 8.3% year on year and an increase of 13.66 million tons year on year. From January to October, the total output of refined coking coal in Shandong Province was 38.78 million tons, an increase of 6.42% year on year, and an increase of 2.33 million tons year on year. In terms of coal classification, the coking coal increment in 2019 is mainly dominated by coking coal and 1 / 3 coking coal. From January to October 2019, the cumulative output of main coking coal is 131 million tons, an increase of 13.2% year-on-year. From January to October, the cumulative output of 1 / 3 coking coal concentrate is 77.1941 million tons, an increase of 11.19% year-on-year. The import continued to increase, and the impact of seaborne coal on the international market increased. The annual export volume of coking coal in the world reached 330 million tons. The main coking coal export countries are Australia, the United States, Canada and Mongolia, among which Australia is the main coking coal export country, accounting for half of the global total exports. From the perspective of global coking coal export, the total annual export volume of coking coal in the world is 320 million tons. The main importers are China, India, Japan and South Korea, among which the main importers are China, accounting for about 20% of the total imports, India for about 18%, and Japan and South Korea for about 30% of the total imports. China is a big coal producer, and coal is the main energy source in China. In terms of the proportion of coking coal supply in China, domestic coking coal accounts for 85-90% of the total supply, and imported coking coal accounts for 10-15%. Australia and Mongolia are the main import countries of coking coal, Australia coal accounts for about 41% of the imported coking coal, and Mongolia coal accounts for about 45% of the imported coking coal. Since this year, although the horizontal control policy is still in place, the import control in the first half of the year is relatively loose, and the main type of coal under control is power coal, and the coking coal import is relatively loose. Therefore, with the decline in the price of seaborne coal, the import continues to increase, and China's coking coal dependence on foreign countries increases. As of October 2019, China has imported 66.63 million tons of coking coal, a year-on-year increase of 17.09% and a year-on-year increase of 9.7236 million tons. In terms of countries, as the global economy weakens this year, the demand for coking coal in other overseas countries drops, the price of Australian coal goes down, and the quantity of coking coal transported to China increases, so the port inventory keeps accumulating. As of October 2019, China has imported 28.1699 million tons of Australian coking coal, an increase of 11% year on year, and an increase of 2.79 million tons year on year. In the first half of the year, the number of customs clearance vehicles at 288 port remained at about 1000, gradually rising to a peak in September. In the fourth quarter, the annual import volume exceeded, coupled with the high level of gate inventory and import control, and the number of customs clearance vehicles dropped to about 200-300. As of October 2019, China has imported 29.4484 million tons of coking coal from Mongolia, a year-on-year increase of 26.65%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.19 million tons. For 2020, there is still an increase in global supply. Australia, Canada and Russia all have new production capacity, and it is estimated that about 10 million tons of coking coal will be supplied in 2020. Domestic supply increase is limited, and the impact of import and export price difference is significant. In 2020, although the target task of capacity reduction of 800 million tons of coal in the 13th five year plan has been completed, there are still capacity reduction tasks in all provinces and cities, and some backward capacity is expected to exit. In terms of new capacity, it is expected that the new coal capacity will reach 92 million tons in 2020, and the high-quality capacity will continue to be released. However, according to the provincial structure of production capacity in the later stage, it is mainly in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Xinjiang, so the released capacity in the later stage is mainly power coal mine, and the increase of coke coal mine capacity is limited. It is expected that the domestic supply will increase steadily and slightly in the whole year next year. In terms of imports, global supply will still increase in 2020, with new capacity added in Australia, Canada and Russia. The increase of global supply to China is mainly affected by two factors, on the one hand, by the difference between internal and external prices. This year, both the demand and the price of domestic coking coal are at a high level, so under the situation of overseas demand shrinking and the price declining, a large number of coal is transported to China by sea. In the later stage, overseas demand may increase in 2020, and the difference between domestic and foreign coal prices may moderate. On the other hand, import policy has a great influence. Under the influence of this year's import control policy, the import volume in the first half of the year was relatively large. Most of the import control started in the second half of the year, which increased the import volume throughout the year. Therefore, if the import policy becomes stricter in 2020, it will also affect the import volume. But at present, China's increasing dependence on imported coal, especially high-quality main coking coal, is expected to maintain a high level of import next year. In general, it is estimated that about 10 million tons of coking coal will be newly supplied in 2020. The new production capacity of domestic end is limited, and it is difficult to increase the production significantly under overproduction and safety inspection. At present, the dependence of the import side on the imported coal is increasing, and the import or maintenance level is high, and the policy impact is paid attention to in stages. The coking coal profit may be compressed, the coking operation will be stable in 2019, and the coking coal demand will be better. In terms of inventory, the coking plant maintains profitability and keeps the main coking coal inventory high. For 2020, with the overall contraction of black industry chain profits and the impact of low-cost imported coal from overseas, the coking coal end with higher profits may be compressed. The prospect of coking coal market in 2020 is that the supply of coking coal may be loose in 2020. In terms of domestic production, although the target of capacity reduction of 800 million tons of coal in the 13th five year plan has been completed, there are still capacity reduction tasks in various provinces and cities, and some backward capacity has been withdrawn. In terms of new capacity, it is expected that the new coal capacity will reach 92 million tons in 2020, and the high-quality capacity will continue to be released. However, according to the provincial structure of production capacity in the later stage, it is mainly in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Xinjiang. Therefore, the capacity released in the later stage is mainly power coal mine, and the capacity increase of coking coal mine is limited. It is estimated that the capacity increase of domestic end will be about 10 million tons next year. In terms of imports, global supply will still increase in 2020, with new capacity added in Australia, Canada and Russia. The increase of global supply to China is mainly affected by two factors. On the one hand, it is affected by the difference between domestic and foreign prices. If the foreign economy stabilizes in 2020 and the overseas demand may increase, the difference between domestic and foreign coal prices will be eased. On the other hand, import policy has a great influence. In January next year, there will be a new year's import quota, import or short-term increase. If the import control policy becomes more strict in 2020, it will also affect the import volume. But at present, China's increasing dependence on imported coal, especially high-quality main coking coal, is expected to maintain a high level of import next year. In general, the new capacity of domestic end is limited, and it is estimated that the new supply of coking coal will be about 10 million tons in 2020. Meanwhile, it is difficult to increase the output significantly under overproduction and safety inspection. At present, the dependence of the import side on the imported coal is increasing, and the import or maintenance level is high, and the policy impact is paid attention to in stages. In terms of demand, the coking capacity will increase steadily in the next year, and the demand will be stable. The coking capacity will be reduced or it will cause periodic impact, but the actual demand for coking coal still depends on the steel and terminal demand. At the same time, high inventory and low price of seaborne coal or squeeze coking coal profits. Therefore, the price of coking coal may fluctuate downward.