N-butanol / octanol: downward channel extension of surplus situation

Since the late June, the decline of n-butanol market has been increasing. With the restart of Sichuan and Jilin chemical plants, the increase of supply concerns, combined with the factors of centralized maintenance of downstream butyl acrylate plants, the market is pessimistic. The downstream plants generally contract procurement, the manufacturer's shipment slows down, and the overall inventory increases. Although there are Wanhua and lihuayi maintenance, the above two manufacturers There are downstream supporting devices, so the reduction of market export volume is less than the increase of supply, and the overall consumption of downstream factories is decreasing, resulting in the overall surplus situation gradually appearing. Local manufacturers have increased low price competition, and the downward movement is continuous. Although some manufacturers change production at the end of the month, the demand for replenishment of some downstream factories is rising, the transaction atmosphere in the spot market is improving, and the manufacturer's shipment is slightly better, Inventory decreased, but due to the low price still exists, the market lacks effective and favorable support, and the overall shock is limited.

In the future, it is expected that the decline of propylene will continue, first of all, the negative pressure on n-butanol will continue to rise. After the resumption of production and sales in Sichuan and Jilin chemical, Yankuang will restart, and the pressure of supply increase will continue to appear. It is expected that the downward trend of n-butanol market in July will continue. In terms of octanol, since this month, the market trend of downstream plasticizers has not been effectively reversed, and the demand for plasticizers and other auxiliaries by terminal soft products enterprises has remained in a low state. However, after the Qingdao summit, the operating rates of DOP and DOTP, the main plasticizers, have risen rapidly. The overall operating level in the later part of this month was at a high level in recent years, and the consumption of octanol has increased dramatically. In addition, Luxi has a large export port Lanfan octanol unit has short-term maintenance and lihuayi unit maintenance. The octanol manufacturer's shipment is quite smooth, and the inventory is kept in a tight state, so the manufacturer's inflation has continued for a time. However, the cost pressure of DOP and DOTP is rising, and the loss situation of the enterprise is aggravating. Some manufacturers are converting butanol to octanol, and the production of octanol is increasing. Sichuan Petrochemical products are expected to release, and the overall supply is expected to ease. With the continuous decline of propylene, the pressure of octanol to yield is gradually increasing. At the same time, the purchasing of octanol by the plasticizer factory is decreasing, and the inventory of the factory is expected to be loose, and octanol is expected to be released in the short term The market will be attributed to the trend of weak sideways consolidation, and it is expected that there will also be downward adjustment trend under the pressure of overall consumption slowdown with the restart of maintenance devices and the increase of output of conversion devices later next month.