Next week coal prices will go down

Under the joint action of increasing port inventory, decreasing daily consumption of power plants and restoring customs clearance of imported coal, port coal price is finally a little overwhelmed; it is expected that the port market coal price will enter the decline channel next Monday and Tuesday at the latest. After new year's day, the market sentiment has cooled. The downstream counter offer price of sulfur-containing 0.6% coal is flat according to the index, and sulfur-containing 0.8-1% is down by 3-5 CNY/ton. This week, the market demand is obviously weakened. On the one hand, the import coal is cleared, and the supply increase is further enhanced; on the other hand, as the Spring Festival approaches, the terminal coal consumption will show a seasonal decline. Affected by this, the downstream purchasing strength weakened, the counter offer price decreased, and the coal price index stabilized. In January, the number of downstream inquiry customers decreased, the coal trade in the northern port decreased, and the power plant was also connected with imported coal while extending the cooperation. The main production area has expanded production halt and domestic trade supply has been further restricted. Due to the close to the Spring Festival, in the next two weeks, many coal mining stations and trading businesses will continue to shut down for holidays, which will be dominated by rigid haulage, and the volume of railway shipment and transfer in of ports around the Bohai Sea will remain low; it is expected that in January, the railway transfer in will be lower than the normal level.

In the first two days of the month, affected by the reduction of upstream supply and the high daily consumption, the port market coal price continued to increase in December last year, but the increase was narrowed. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the industrial power consumption is weak; in addition, the temperature in East China is rising, the civil power load is falling, the daily consumption is decreasing, and the terminal coal consumption is weakening seasonally. Market news: in January 2020, the price of Shenhua monthly long-term coal association was released. The monthly price of 5500 kcal coal of long-term coal association was 555 CNY/ton, up 5 CNY/ton on a month-on-month basis; the annual price of long-term coal association was 542 CNY/ton, down 12 CNY/ton on a year-on-year basis. With the implementation of the new long-term coal association and the normal opening of import coal after customs clearance, a large number of coal will flow into the coastal market; the power plant will mainly cash in the long-term coal association, but the long-awaited import coal replenishment will be converted into reality, and the haulage volume of market coal will be relatively reduced. In the case of weak demand and port closure, the coal storage in the Bohai Sea port rebounded; among them, the coal storage in QinGang port rebounded to 5.6 million tons again; in addition, the inventory of Southern Power Plant and port of loading and unloading increased, the downstream users' backs were straight, the price of coal counter offer was reduced, the favorable factors of coastal coal market gradually weakened, and the coal transportation will gradually become flat. Coal prices are expected to come under pressure from next week. From May 15, the coastal coal market will usher in a once-a-year, 20 day flat period; at this stage, the supply and demand of the coal market are weak, and the coal price remains low.