PTA rebound or end of polyester production reduction

In the near future, PTA rebounded slightly due to tight spot market. From the supply side, Hainan Yisheng, Jiaxing petrochemical and other large capacity PTA units have been restarted on Monday. The 1.1 million ton / year PTA unit in xinfengming will be put into production by the end of November, and the tight spot will be gradually relieved. From the demand side, today's downstream polyester enterprises announced the end of month repair plan, and the demand is expected to weaken. To sum up, PTA supply and demand are expected to weaken at present. We think PTA will rebound or come to the end of this round, so we suggest to treat it in a short way. In addition, considering the problem of warehouse transfer and month change, based on the expectation that PTA will face huge inventory pressure from February to March, ta2005 will face great downward pressure, so it is suggested to pay attention to the opportunity of rebound and layout of far month empty orders. 1 cost end: oil price boosts PX price, which is relatively strong in the short term. PX price is strong in the short term due to oil price. As of November 25, the price of PX CFR in China was $793.25/ton, up from $787.25/ton in the middle of November. The rise of PX in this round is mainly due to the fact that there are many PX overhauls in Asia, the unit load is low, and the spot is tight.

In "PX nap", it has been compressed to a historical low of $236 / ton. With the strong operation of crude oil price, PX price rises accordingly. In the medium and long term, there is limited space for PX to rise further. From the perspective of supply, Hengyi Brunei's 1.5 million tons / year load is currently 60-70% after being put into operation in early November, and it is planned to increase to 80% in the near future. It is expected that the first batch of PX products will arrive in Hong Kong by the end of this month. In addition, Qingdao Lidong's 1 million ton / year PX plant was shut down for maintenance on November 7, and it is planned to restart at the end of November. Therefore, it is expected that the tight spot PX around the end of the month will gradually reverse. From the perspective of "PX nap" price difference, although the current price difference has been compressed to a historical low of $236 / T, in the medium and long term, from the end of 2019 to 2020, PX has a total capacity delivery plan of 8.8 million tons / year, and considering the great advantages of refining and chemical integration device cost, "PX nap" price difference still has a small compression space, which is one of the spaces for PTA price decline in the future. 2 supply side: PTA spot tight situation will gradually alleviate the short-term tight situation caused by the increase of PTA device maintenance in October.

Since October, PTA plant maintenance has increased to offset the supply shock brought by the production of 2.2 million tons / year PTA plant in xinfengming. Among them, Hengli Petrochemical (1 × 2.2 million tons / year, 2 × 2.2 million tons / year), Hanbang Petrochemical (2 × 2.2 million tons / year) and other large-scale plants have been opened for maintenance. Since xinfengming only opened a production line of 1.1 million tons / year at the end of October, another production line of 1.1 million tons / year is planned to be put into production at the end of November. Therefore, the PTA overhaul tide since October not only offset the impact of new capacity, but also led to the decline of PTA social inventory under the acceptable demand for polyester downstream. As of November 22, PTA social inventory was 1.297 million tons, down 2.11% on the previous week and up 69.19% on the previous year. The continuous decline in inventory has resulted in the recent tight spot situation. New Fengming test run at the end of the month & large plants have been restarted, PTA spot tight will gradually ease. According to the current operation of PTA plant, PTA supply is expected to gradually improve in the near future. First of all, Hainan Yisheng's 2 million ton / year PTA plant was restarted in advance on Monday, Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.5 million ton / year PTA plant was restarted on Monday, Yadong Petrochemical's 700000 ton / year PTA plant was scheduled to restart on November 27, and xinfengming's 1.1 million ton / year new PTA capacity is expected to be put into production by the end of November.

Therefore, under the expectation of restart and operation of the above devices, PTA supply is expected to recover gradually, and the spot tight situation will be relieved. 3 demand side: Polyester maintenance is expected to rise demand will gradually weaken polyester production profit differentiation, and most filament varieties are still profitable. At present, in polyester products, in addition to polyester chips and polyester filament FDY in a loss state, polyester bottle chips, polyester filament POY, polyester filament DTY are in a profit state. This is mainly due to the sharp drop of PTA price in the early stage, and for polyester, its production efficiency has been improved under the decrease of raw material cost. Therefore, the phenomenon that polyester load gradually weakened from the end of October, which was originally expected by the market, did not occur. The stock of the end grey fabric is accumulated in a small scale, the loom load starts to weaken in December, and the polyester up negative feedback is expected to start gradually. As of November 25, the stock of grey cloth in Shengze area has reached 38.5 days, which means that the terminal has ended the slow stock removal and turned into a small stock accumulation. Generally speaking, at present, the terminal is catching up with foreign Christmas orders, but in December, with the gradual reduction of orders, the corresponding Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load is expected to start to decline. The decrease of loom load will lead to the decrease of polyester unit load, and eventually lead to the weakening of PTA demand.

Polyester load may weaken significantly in late December. The expected increase of polyester maintenance in late October was delayed due to the performance of raw materials and terminals. According to the current maintenance plan of the device, polyester maintenance increased this week, especially from late December to January, polyester device has a large area of maintenance plan, so we expect that from late December to January, polyester load will be greatly weakened, PTA demand will also be weakened. 4 before the summary and operation suggestion, the power of PTA's small rebound lies in the tight spot. At present, the spot is expected to become loose: from the supply side, Hainan Yisheng, Jiaxing petrochemical and other large capacity PTA devices have been restarted on Monday, and the 1.1 million ton / year PTA device of xinfengming will be put into production by the end of November, and the tight spot will be gradually relieved; from the demand side, the downstream polyester enterprises announced the maintenance plan today, and the demand is expected to weaken. From a technical point of view, in this round of PTA rebound, the upper 4800-4850 is a strong pressure range. At present, it is difficult to break through, and there are signs of increasing short positions on the market today. Disclaimer: all content provided by our media is from our media, and the copyright belongs to the original author. Please contact the original author for permission. The opinion of the article only represents the author, not Sina. If the content involves investment suggestions, it is only for reference and not for investment basis. There are risks in investment, so we should be cautious when entering the market.