August 13th, news:
On the 12th, the natural rubber market in the Qingdao area saw a slight increase, with merchants raising their offers by 100~250 CNY/ton; the average difference indicator showed a bearish signal of stagnation, with the 1-year cycle price at a medium-high level and limited upward space; in July, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber decreased by 8.5% year-on-year, while European replacement tire sales in the second quarter increased by 3.1% year-on-year, leading to a clear feature of fluctuating market conditions under the interweaving of bullish and bearish factors.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-12) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-11) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 42.5 | 7.5 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 102.5 | 132.5 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 104.16 | 55 | + |
II. Signal Status Determination
Stagflation warning (bearish), corresponding symbol combination (+, -, +)
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
Oscillation (Reason: The change directions of the three averages compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent. The 5-day and 20-day averages have increased from yesterday, while the 10-day average has decreased, meeting the criteria for an oscillation with a bearish bias in the stagnation warning rule.)
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Natural rubber prices over a 1-year cycle are at a medium-high level, with limited room for increase; over a 3-month cycle, they are at a medium-low level, and over a 60-day cycle, they are at a medium level. The current price has some resistance to decline but the upward potential is constrained.
Five, Trend Chart Display
VI. Market Trend Details
Spot prices: On August 12, in the Qingdao region, the mainstream prices for 24-year Yunnan Treasure / Guangken / Haibao were 16950~17150 CNY/ton; the mainstream prices for 25-year Yunnan Treasure / Guangken / Haibao were 17150~17300 CNY/ton; the mainstream prices for Vietnam 3L were 18150~18350 CNY/ton, an increase of 100~250 CNY/ton compared to the quotations on August 11.
Import and Export Data: According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in July 2026, China imported 580,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a decrease of 8.5% year-on-year. From January to July, cumulative imports totaled 4.515 million tons, down 4.1% year-on-year.
Overseas Demand: According to data from the European Tyre and Rubber Manufacturers' Association (ETRMA), sales in Europe's replacement tire market increased by 3.1% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, reaching 57.38 million units.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
