The coal market of producing area under the influence of epidemic situation

Since the novel coronavirus infection pneumonia outbreak, the prevention and control measures have been carried out in all parts of the country. 54 cases were confirmed in Inner Mongolia, including 11 cases diagnosed in Erdos Area in the main producing area of the main power plant. Because the spread of the virus covers the whole country, according to the transmission characteristics and the impact of the incubation period, enterprises in various regions postponed the resumption of work, and various measures such as vehicle registration, temperature measurement and targeted isolation were taken to prevent and control. The impact of the epidemic on the coal market has gradually emerged. First of all, the production area is insufficient to return to work and the coal source is tight. Judging from the recent resumption of production, there are 64 coal mines in Ordos, with an operating rate of 21.2%. Although the operating rate of coal in the main production area keeps increasing, it is still low, with a total capacity of 346 million tons. In terms of flag areas, the operating rates of coal mines in Dongsheng and Dalate are 25.9% and 41% respectively.

The operating rates of coal mines in Zhungeer and Yijinhuoluo are 14% and 11% respectively. There are a large number of coal mines in these two areas, with a total of 25 coal mines. As of yesterday, Ordos sold 1.15 million tons of coal, 850000 tons of railway, accounting for 71% of the total, and 440000 tons of regional sales, accounting for 38%. The city's inventory is at a low level, with a total inventory of 4.59 million tons. The same situation plagues Shaanxi Province. According to the data of Yulin coal trading center, the daily output of coal mines in Shaanxi Province is 757000 tons, and the coal inventory in Shaanxi Province is 1.4 million tons. It can be seen that the shortage of coal resources is widespread in the main production areas of power coal. From the point of view of the railway and road transportation of coal production area, the traffic volume shows a year-on-year decline. On the one hand, the railway transportation volume fell. This week, the total shipment volume of six parks counted by Inner Mongolia coal trading center was 804000 tons, down 94000 tons on a month on month basis, down 10.5% on a month on month basis, down 46% on a year-on-year basis. The total inventory of the park is 739000 tons, down 360000 tons on a month on month basis, down 32.7%, down 27% on a year-on-year basis. This week's total shipment volume of Huzhou Railway Bureau is 802000 tons, slightly higher than last week's level, 40% lower than that during the Spring Festival, 48.5% lower than the same period last year.

Among them, the shipment volume to Hong Kong is 515200 tons, 70000 tons lower than the same period last month, 12% lower than the same period last year, 67% lower than the same period last year. On the other hand, the automobile transportation is not smooth. Due to the outbreak in Ordos, the whole city's people conduct isolation observation, and the government controls the vehicles in and out of Ordos comprehensively. It is difficult for the transportation vehicles outside the province to enter Ordos for transportation, and the transportation vehicles in the local epidemic area cannot be put into operation. Therefore, the daily average export volume of local coal mines in Ordos this week is 320000 tons, and the total weekly export volume is 22 7. 60000 tons, of which the total sales volume outside the province is less than 100000 tons. The sales volume in Inner Mongolia is 2.16 million tons. The coal export volume of the production area mainly depends on the fire transportation, and the automobile transportation vehicles are limited. The number of medium and short distance vehicles returning to work is small, and the transportation capacity is insufficient, especially the long-distance vehicles. Therefore, under the request of no price increase in time, the market demand still drives the price up, and the short-distance price rises to 1 CNY/ton km. Thirdly, the impact of the epidemic, downstream enterprises are also restricted by the resumption of work. In the context of low supply and demand market operation, the impact of delayed resumption of work in the production area can not be ignored, but from the current situation, the pace of resumption of work in the production area is still restricted.

On the one hand, the field staff need to be isolated before going back to work. The enterprise cannot solve the problems of protective facilities, disinfection facilities and meal distribution after returning to work smoothly, and the situation that the vehicles cannot be put into operation smoothly still continues. On the other hand, the demand for replenishment of surrounding power plants and chemical enterprises is still in place. The overall inventory level of the northern port moves down, and the demand for replenishment of the downstream passive inventory removal and production recovery is reflected in a centralized way. The increase of coal demand will drive up the price of coal. In February, the long-term price of Shenhua Group has clearly increased by 7-8 CNY/ton, and the sales price of some coal mines in Ordos has also increased by 5-15 CNY/ton, while xiaobaodang coal mine in Yulin area has increased by 85 CNY/ton. The price rise of the main producing areas is the impact of the outbreak, and will gradually return to the market regulation with the end of the epidemic control. It is a short-term emergency factor, but its duration, impact on the import market and the extent of de stocking all have an impact on the coal market not yet running.