Weak Demand, Butadiene Market Shows Weak Trend in September

September 29, News

According to the commodity market analysis system, in September 2025, the Chinese butadiene market fluctuated downward. From September 1st to 29th, the price of butadiene in China dropped from 9,316.67 CNY/ton to 8,900 CNY/ton, with a decrease of 4.47% during the period.

Early this month: Supply and demand dynamics remained relatively stable during the period. Influenced by fluctuations in the downstream synthetic rubber futures market, the butadiene market initially fell, then rebounded, and eventually retreated again—overall maintaining a range-bound, volatile trend this week.

Late period: During this cycle, the Chinese butadiene market has been operating on a generally weak trend. This week, the demand side has shown poor performance, with the downstream synthetic rubber market also showing a weak trend. The enthusiasm for entering the market is low, and the purchasing intention is weak, leading to unsatisfactory actual transactions in the market. Lacking support from demand, the butadiene market as a whole has been operating weakly. As the end of the month approaches, pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream sectors is basically complete. The supply of butadiene in the market is relatively loose, and without the boost from demand, the butadiene market has declined again.

Cost Perspective: As of the 26th, the settlement price for the U.S. WTI crude oil futures October contract was $63.25 per barrel, while the Brent crude oil futures October contract settled at $67.22 per barrel. During this pricing cycle, crude oil prices remained volatile. On one hand, OPEC+ announced that it had already achieved its cumulative production increase of 2.3 million barrels per day by September, effectively marking the group's early exit from its over-2.2 million bpd production cut plan—one year ahead of schedule. This news weighed negatively on the oil market. On the other hand, escalating tensions in Europe and subsequent peace talks have eased geopolitical supply risks, while weak global macroeconomic data, coupled with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, have further dampened bullish momentum in the crude oil market.

Supply Side: As of the 29th, Sinopec's sales companies have set their butadiene price at 9,000 CNY per ton, a decrease of 500 CNY per ton compared to the same period last month.

The 160,000 tons/year butadiene plant of Fushun Petrochemical is operating normally; it will be shut down for maintenance starting from August 14, with no current plans for external sales, and is expected to restart in October.

The Shenghong Refining & Chemical 200,000-ton/year butadiene unit is operating normally, with a price reduction of 120 CNY/ton, bringing the current price down to 8,900 CNY/ton.

Satellite Chemical's 90,000 tons/year butadiene unit is operating normally, with a reduction of 100 CNY/ton, now priced at 9,000 CNY/ton.

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000 tons/year butadiene plant has been restarted, with 224 tons sold externally at a minimum price of 9,000 CNY per ton.

Demand Side: In September, the butadiene rubber market in China showed a weak and fluctuating downward trend. According to the commodity price analysis system, as of September 29, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 11,750 CNY/ton, down 3.69% from 12,200 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month. On one hand, the price of raw material butadiene has been fluctuating downward, negatively impacting the cost of butadiene rubber; on the other hand, the operating rate of butadiene rubber slightly decreased, easing the supply pressure. The downstream tire industry's operations have shown minor fluctuations, mainly supporting the rigid demand for butadiene rubber. As of September 29, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangzi butadiene rubber in the East China region were between 11,650 and 12,000 CNY/ton.

Market Forecast: Recently, there has been no significant increase in downstream demand, and the overall market expectation is weak. Under the intention of rigid demand procurement, the spot market is generally operating weakly. Pre-holiday inventory preparations are basically complete, and the market lacks positive factors for a boost. Influenced by the weak demand side, it is expected that the butadiene market will mainly exhibit a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term. Close attention should be paid to post-holiday purchasing demand.