In 2020, coal power generation may decline by a record large margin

The debate between electric vehicles and internal combustion engines on who is more environmentally friendly has never stopped. Although electric vehicles do not directly generate carbon emissions, the final conclusion is difficult to judge because the power used is largely from coal. However, novel coronavirus is expected to be significantly reduced in 2020 due to the global spread of the new coronavirus, and the cost of renewable energy will be cheaper than coal, which means that electric vehicles will be more environmentally friendly in the future. Taking the United States as an example, in the current energy structure, natural gas power generation ranks first, accounting for 38.4%, and coal-fired power generation accounts for 23.5%, ranking second. However, coal-fired power plants cause more serious damage to the environment. Coal-fired power plants account for about one fifth of global carbon dioxide emissions, making them the largest source of greenhouse gases. As novel coronavirus of COVID-19 has been raging around the world, the global energy market has been devastating.

Gasoline prices around the world are at their lowest level in decades; carbon prices in the European Union have fallen sharply, down 45% in March; power coal (coal used for power generation) is relatively unscathed because half of its production and sales come from China, and the api2 index is down 12% as it was in the same period in 2019. In fact, the three main variables that affect the unit economy of power coal are: coal price, installed capacity coefficient and carbon price. Among them, the European Union's carbon price plummeted 45% (from 24 euros / ton to 15 euros / ton) in March, leading to calls for the adjustment of the market to stabilize reserves. The price of coal to gas in the EU is 9 euros / ton, far lower than the current price of 16 euros / ton. This means that despite the fall in prices, the EU's emissions trading system is driving hard coal out of the EU's power system in an unprecedented way. In addition, the global average carbon price of coal is only $2.7/ton. From a macro perspective, the collapse of EU prices is negligible. Carbon tracker, a UK government risk analysis and research think tank, reports that coal power generation will be significantly reduced in 2020. According to the global GDP forecast of 1.5%, - 2% and - 4%, the power generation is expected to decrease by 6.8%, 15.4% and 20.3% year on year, because the power demand will decrease as the economy shrinks. Even in the most optimistic scenario, a year-on-year decline of 6.8% will still be the largest decline in recent history.

Apart from the further reduction of coal power generation itself, don't forget that renewable energy is becoming cheaper and cheaper. From the perspective of the whole power generation industry, in Japan, Australia, Russia, the United States and many European countries, coal power generation is more expensive than renewable energy power generation. These European countries include the UK, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Romania, Austria, Germany, Italy, France, Greece, Portugal and the Netherlands. Carbon tracker has previously reported that more than 60% of coal-fired power plants cost more than wind and solar power equipment, of which more than 95% of the cost of coal-fired power generation in the EU is higher than the cost of building new wind or solar power equipment, while the figures in other important countries are China (71%), India (51%) and the United States (47%). In other words, even if governments loosen emission standards for coal-fired power plants, it seems that power plants and investors will reduce coal-fired power generation based on cost and environmental protection considerations. This comes after the US eliminated 15.1 gigawatts of coal-fired power in 2019. For more information about environmental protection electric vehicles, please pay attention to the follow-up reports of sina motors.