August 5th, according to reports
According to the commodity market analysis system, from July 1st to July 31st, the price of MTBE in China rose from 5,230 CNY/ton to 7,200 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 37.67% during the period and a year-on-year increase of 42.57%.
At the beginning of the month, the market operated on the weaker side. As the middle of the month approached, prices began to rise rapidly—a price increase that was far greater and faster than expected. With the Strait of Hormuz once again closed and geopolitical tensions escalating, international crude oil prices surged significantly. Coupled with a concentrated wave of export order deliveries, the utilization rate of MTBE facilities also plummeted to its lowest level in nearly five years, further highlighting the tight spot supply situation. Manufacturers seized the opportunity to actively push for price hikes. In the latter half of the month, the MTBE market continued to see some upward pressure, and supported by multiple favorable factors, prices in many regions rose above 7,000.
MTBE China production price average trend chart:
Cost Perspective: Regarding crude oil, international crude oil prices showed an upward trend in July, though the average price declined compared to June. In the first half of the month, the U.S. announced that the ceasefire agreement had ended, prompting market concerns about a potential re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and driving up international oil prices. In the middle of the month, tensions between the U.S. and Iran continued to escalate, with Iran once again closing the Strait of Hormuz. Market worries grew that the U.S.-Iran conflict could further intensify, heightening supply risks and pushing international oil prices higher. In the latter half of the month, international oil prices initially rose before falling. Earlier ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions continued to ferment, and coupled with Houthi militants’ attacks on Saudi oil tankers, which exacerbated supply risks, these factors supported the upward movement in oil prices. At the end of the month, the U.S. and Iran temporarily ceased hostilities and expressed hope for the start of new negotiations, easing market concerns about supply risks and causing international oil prices to fall sharply.
Demand Side: On the downstream side, regarding gasoline terminal demand, international crude oil price trends are expected to remain volatile, and market participants continue to adopt a cautious stance. As a result, they are still hesitant to place orders for related gasoline components. Given that shipload deliveries in August remain relatively high, this is expected to provide support to the MTBE market, particularly during the first half of the month. MTBE export volumes in August may decline compared to July, as China’s need to absorb domestic resources gradually increases. Overall, the demand side for MTBE is influenced by relatively favorable factors.
Supply side: During the month, Shouguang Dexin, Bengu New Materials, Dechen Energy, Huayi Chemical, Shandong Chengtai, Huizhou Yuxin, Maoming Shihua, Dongming Qianhai, and Haiteweiye successively halted operations. Some manufacturers briefly stopped and then resumed production, but most did not resume operations. Some of the manufacturers that had previously halted operations, such as Haierxi, Sanjiang Chemical, Lushenfa, Dechen Energy, Shandong Chengtai, and Dongming Qianhai, restarted their facilities. Overall, the supply of resources decreased. The MTBE supply side was influenced by positive factors.
As of August 4, statistics on MTBE factory prices from selected production enterprises:
| Enterprise | Unit | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Chengtai Chemical | 200,000 tons/year isomerization unit shut down | 6,850 CNY/ton |
| Shida Shenghua | 200,000 tons/year isomerization unit operating steadily, normal shipments | 6,900 CNY/ton |
| Shenchi Chemical | 400,000 tons/year mixed alkane dehydrogenation plant co-producing 350,000 tons of MTBE | 6,803 CNY/ton |
| Lihua Yi | Isomerization and isobutane dehydrogenation units operating normally | 6,900 CNY/ton |
| Dongming Petrochemical | 350,000 tons/year mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit operating steadily, producing 1,000 tons per day | 6,700 CNY/ton |
As of the close on August 4, the Asian MTBE market closed at a price that was $7.8 per ton lower than the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices ranging from $1,031.53 to $1,033.53 per ton. In the European MTBE market, the closing price was $49.5 per ton lower than the previous trading day, with FOB ARA prices ranging from $1,229.49 to $1,229.99 per ton. In the U.S. MTBE market, the closing price was $52.24 per ton lower than the previous trading day, with FOB Gulf offshore prices ranging from $927.44 to $927.80 per ton (261.87 to 261.97 cents per gallon).
| Region | Country | Closing Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | FOB Singapore | USD 1,031.53–1,033.53 per ton | -USD 7.8 per ton |
| Europe | FOB ARA | USD 1,229.49–1,229.99 per ton | -USD 49.5 per ton |
| United States | FOB Gulf | USD 927.44–927.80 per ton | -USD 52.24 per ton |
Market Forecast: The tight supply situation is gradually easing and trending toward abundance. The gasoline market remains somewhat supported amid the summer peak season, while high cost prices continue to provide a certain level of support to the market. MTBE analysts believe that the MTBE market will likely experience high-level fluctuations and consolidation this month, with prices possibly peaking earlier in the month before declining later on.
