The domestic phenol market may bottom out

Since the eleven holiday, the phenol market has entered the downward channel. According to monitoring data, on October 9, 2022, the national average price of phenol offer was 11,387 CNY/ton; on November 11, the national market offer was 9,062 CNY/ton; on November 14, the market offer was 9,072 CNY/ton, with a total decline of 21%. But the recent decline in the market and some areas to stop the rebound, the overall market gradually bottomed out, and supported by the supply side, the new week holding low intention is not big, the overall push up the offer.

As of November 14, the national mainstream phenol negotiation market offers: the mainstream tanker negotiation in East China is at 9,050 CNY/ton, which is about 100 CNY/ton higher than last Friday; the offer in Shandong and the surrounding areas of Yanshan is at 9,050-9,100 CNY/ton; the offer in South China is at 9,100 CNY/ton; and the offer in Henan is at 9,350-9,450 CNY/ton.

First, the supply side of the domestic phenol market to support a slight recovery. According to the statistics of last Friday, the inventory of Jiangyin port fell to 20,000 tons, and Changchun Chemical (Jiangsu) and Ningbo Taihua phenol ketone units were in the maintenance period, and Huizhou Zhongxin was restarted after several days of unplanned shutdown, which was supported by the supply side. In the afternoon of 11th, due to this impact, the low interest of phenol traders weakened, and the focus of negotiations was boosted, and the new week opened. In particular, the market offer in East China rapidly increased by 100 CNY/ton, and the overall atmosphere of pushing up was obvious, and the intermediate traders and downstream users increased the enthusiasm of replenishment at the appropriate price, and continue to pay attention to the market volume.

Second, the market continued to fall and gradually bottomed out, with downstream users gradually digest inventory replenishment intention to increase. Since October 9, the national phenol market has been on a unilateral downward trend, with a total decline of about 2,300 CNY/ton, or 21%. During this period, the factory has also significantly adjusted the price for many times, which is consistent with the overall market adjustment range. In the declining cycle of the market, the participation of intermediate traders is low, and the end users are not motivated to enter the market to resupply due to the mentality of buying up rather than buying down. In a state of constant wait and see. In the second week of November, the market decline slowed down. The mentality of gradually bottoming out affected the market. The downstream factories made inquiries and needed replenishment, and the participation of intermediate traders increased.

Third, related products of the industrial chain showed a slight rebound trend, supporting the phenol market to stop falling or bottom out. Since the end of September, the downstream bisphenol A market has turned downward and continued to decline. In November, the domestic bisphenol A market continued to be weak but the decline slowed down. As the price gradually approached the cost line, the market attention increased, some intermediate traders and downstream users gradually entered the market inquiry, and the bisphenol A Stockholders gradually pushed up the offers. On the 14th, the bisphenol A market offer at 11900-12000 CNY/ton, compared to the low level of nearly two months slightly increased by 200 CNY/ton or so, but the field demand is still not optimistic, rebound rebound is still lack of good support. Upstream raw materials in Shandong pure benzene market transactions in 6,900-7,000 CNY/ton, compared to the previous trading day up 80-120 CNY/ton. Mainly styrene export favorable pull, pure benzene with the overall rise, forward trading activity significantly increased.

According to statistics, the quantity of phenol arriving at the port this week is still small, which is expected to be about 10,000 tons, down by 50% compared with last week, and the supply of goods in domestic trade is relatively sufficient. From the perspective of the business community, recently it has been pushed up slightly by the support of the supply side, but under the current epidemic situation, the transportation is not smooth, so the shipment is inhibited. The same is true for the phenol market. It is expected that the increase of phenol will be limited in the later stage, or it will run at the bottom and fluctuate, and the negotiation space in East China will be around 9050 CNY/ton.