Market Analysis - Monthly Report - June, 2020 - Isopropanol

What's hot and what's trending this month

1) Isopropanol drops rapidly from its high level.

2) The price of isopropanol is greatly influenced by the raw material acetone.

3) Shutdown of domestic factories.

Summary of the market this month

This month after the isopropanol market experienced a sharp drop, affected by raw acetone.

Isopropanol offers also rose rapidly to as high as $1750 / ton, buoyed by the historic acetone market rally earlier this month. However, high-priced isopropyl alcohol is gradually unsalable overseas. With the increase of low-priced substitutes, the export of isopropyl alcohol is blocked, and the sales pressure of manufacturers becomes prominent. It is not easy for high-priced isopropyl alcohol to be traded. From the middle of the year, acetone stopped rising and fell, isopropanol market mentality weakened, the demand dragged down the discussion, but the cost pressure did not reduce, many manufacturers stop. At the end of the month, acetone narrow rebound, isopropanol mood improved, steady offer wait-and-see.

Market forecast for next month

Recent acetone rose to high, isopropanol manufacturers cost pressure, most have stopped, the overall supply is tight; Recently, isopropanol is facing difficulties in overseas sales, export orders have been sharply reduced, and the demand pressure will continue; Acetone has not returned to the reasonable range, acetone isopropanol manufacturers profit has approached the cost line; The price difference between propylene and isopropanol is large and its influence is limited. Short-term acetone still has room to rise, which may support the market mentality of isopropyl alcohol, but it is difficult for the end demand to improve significantly. Under the pressure of shipment, isopropyl alcohol is more likely to decline. And late acetone may fall back risk, need to pay attention to the impact on industry mentality.

Factory shutdowns in China

Stoppage more, operating rate only 65% or so.

Chart of China's IPA export trend in 2019-2020

According to customs statistics, in May 2020, the average import price of isopropyl alcohol was

$1526.94 / ton. 49446.86 tons of isopropyl alcohol were exported, and the average export price was $1349.19 / ton.

Note: the general administration of customs will no longer separately release the import and export data of January and February in 2020, but will merge the data in March and release the data to the public in January and February. The total amount will be divided equally.

 Summary and views

Next month, acetone early still has room to go up, isopropanol market mentality support, the industry or stable disk. However, the price of isopropanol is still outside the reasonable range, and it is difficult to eliminate the difficult situation of overseas unsalable products for a short time. Under the pressure of shipment, the probability of isopropanol's decline is relatively large. And late acetone may fall back risk, need to pay attention to the impact on industry mentality.