Methanol market conditions continue to be weak in China

November 07, News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from November 3 to 7 (as of 15:00), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of the Chinese methanol market fell from 2102 CNY/ton to around 2095 CNY/ton, with a price decrease of 0.33% during the period, a month-on-month decrease of 6.37%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.17%. The Chinese methanol market continues to be weak, with high inventory levels at the ports persisting. Under the pressure of high supply, the methanol market at the ports continues to decline. Methanol in the inland areas of China also continues to decline, with a weak supply and demand situation. The significant drop in prices, coupled with the continuous backflow of port supplies, has had a notable impact on market sentiment.

As of the close on November 7, the methanol futures closing price on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell. The main contract 2601 for methanol futures opened at 2122 CNY/ton, reached a high of 2132 CNY/ton, a low of 2106 CNY/ton, and closed at 2112 CNY/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan or 0.19% compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 915,796, the open interest was 1,390,819, with an increase of 22,489 in open interest for the day.

Methanol Spot and Futures Comparison Chart:

As of November 7, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:

Cost Side: Coal inventories have noticeably declined, while winter stockpiling efforts are underway, leaving room for prices to rise and strengthening cost-side support. Positive factors are influencing methanol costs on the cost side.

Coal/Power Coal (Upstream Raw Material) - Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Demand Side: Olefin procurement demand remains supportive, and overall traditional downstream demand is expected to recover—though the incremental growth on the demand side will be limited. Most downstream products are still influenced by methanol prices, with methanol demand currently weighed down by bearish factors.

Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Methanol-MTBE (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Supply side, Jutai New Materials and Hubei Sanning are undergoing plant maintenance; China Coal Yuanxing, Inner Mongolia Donghua, Jinneng Technology, Yunnan Yuntianhua, Shanxi Tianze, and Guangju New Materials have resumed operations. The overall recovery volume is greater than the loss volume, so the capacity utilization rate has increased. The methanol supply side is influenced by bearish factors.

On the international front, as of the close on November 6, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market settled at $322.5–$323.5 per ton. Meanwhile, the FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market closed at 89.5–90.5 cents per gallon, while the FOB Rotterdam methanol market in Europe ended at €271.5–€272.5 per ton.

Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain characterized by high supply in China, elevated port inventories, and subdued downstream buying activity. According to methanol analysts, the spot market for methanol in China is likely to stay on the weaker side.