IMF: 2020 global oil demand may decrease by 8%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently stated in a new update report that the novel coronavirus crisis will cause global oil demand this year to drop by approximately 8% year-on-year.

The IMF said in its external report entitled "Global Imbalances and the COVID-19 Crisis" that oil prices this year will be 41% lower than last year. The IMF stated that the direct impact of low oil prices on the oil trade balance of various economies will be different, which reflects the dependence of various economies on oil imports and exports.

The IMF's forecast for the decline in global oil demand this year is consistent with the forecasts of other forecasting agencies such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

In its latest oil market report in July, the IEA stated that global oil demand is expected to decrease by 7.9 million barrels per day this year, but the forecast is slightly higher than the 8.1 million barrels per day decline in June.

However, the IEA pointed out that the recent surge in the number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia and the restoration of partial blockades in some countries continue to exacerbate the uncertainty of global oil demand this year.

According to the IEA, the global average oil consumption this year is expected to be 92.1 million barrels per day, while its previously estimated demand is 100 million barrels per day.

OPEC predicts that total global oil demand will decrease by 8.9 million barrels/day this year and will increase by 7 million barrels/day next year, but it will still be lower than last year's demand.

The IMF pointed out in its updated report that the plunge in oil prices and production cuts after the novel coronavirus virus pandemic will severely hit the oil exporting countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Compared with last year, these oil exporting countries are expected to increase their combined oil revenue this year. A substantial reduction of 270 billion US dollars.