Supply Decreases and Demand Increases, DOP Prices Surge Significantly in January

February 4th news

January Plasticizer DOP Prices Surge in China

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of January 31, the DOP price was 8017.50 CNY/ton, a significant increase from the DOP price of 7325.84 CNY/ton on January 1, with a price increase of 9.44%; on February 4, the DOP price was 7950.84 CNY/ton, a decrease from the DOP price of 8017.50 CNY/ton on January 31, with a price decrease of 0.83%. In January, the operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises in China slightly decreased, with an operating rate of around 63%, and DOP production declined compared to the previous month; the prices of 2-ethylhexanol and phthalic anhydride significantly increased, leading to a rise in raw material costs, which in turn caused an increase in DOP production costs. The increase in costs, combined with a reduction in supply, led to a significant rise in the price of plasticizer DOP in January. In February, the operating load of DOP enterprises in China slightly increased, leading to an increase in the supply of plasticizers. Additionally, as pre-holiday stockpiling neared its end, demand declined, resulting in a fall in the price of plasticizers in February.

Plasticizer DOP manufacturers in China have seen a slight decrease in production.

The price of the raw material 2-ethylhexanol has significantly increased in China.

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of January 31, the price of 2-ethylhexanol was 7,880 CNY/ton, a significant increase from the price of 6,916.67 CNY/ton on January 1, with a price increase of 13.93%; on February 4, the price of 2-ethylhexanol was 7,716.67 CNY/ton, a decrease from the price of 7,880 CNY/ton on January 31, with a price decrease of 2.07%. The maintenance of 2-ethylhexanol production facilities in China has been completed, and the operating load of 2-ethylhexanol production facilities has increased to 95%, ensuring an adequate supply of 2-ethylhexanol; the price of propylene has significantly risen, increasing the cost support for 2-ethylhexanol. The significant rise in the price of 2-ethylhexanol has led to an increase in the cost of plasticizers, thus increasing the upward pressure on DOP prices. In February, the price of 2-ethylhexanol has fallen from its high point, leading to a decrease in the cost of plasticizers.

January phthalic anhydride prices in China saw a significant increase

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of January 31, the price of ortho-xylene phthalic anhydride in China was 6,243.33 CNY/ton, a significant increase from the price of 5,966.67 CNY/ton on January 1, with a price increase of 4.64%; on February 4, the price of phthalic anhydride was 6,200 CNY/ton, a decrease from the price of 6,283.33 CNY/ton on January 27, with a price decrease of 1.33%. The rise in the price of raw material ortho-xylene led to an increase in the cost of phthalic anhydride, causing the price of phthalic anhydride in January to fluctuate upwards, leading to an increase in the cost of DOP, and thus increasing the support for the rise in plasticizers. In late January, the decline in industrial naphthalene prices and the stabilization of ortho-xylene prices at a weak level caused a decrease in the cost of phthalic anhydride, leading to a fluctuating downward trend in the price of phthalic anhydride. As a result, the cost of plasticizers decreased, weakening the support for the rise in plasticizers.

Growth in demand for plasticizers in China

On January 8, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that, starting from April 1, 2026, the 13% VAT export rebate for plasticized PVC will be canceled, to be implemented concurrently with unplasticized PVC and pure PVC powder. Plasticized PVC, also known as soft PVC, relies on plasticizers (such as DOTP, DOP, etc.) to adjust its flexibility and is widely used in areas such as wires and cables, artificial leather, films, and hoses. To take advantage of the last export rebate, companies in this sector are accelerating their order schedules before April 1, and overseas customers are also concentrating their purchases, temporarily boosting export volumes and driving a phased increase in the demand for plasticizers. Preparations for the Spring Festival have also supported downstream orders for plasticizers, leading to an increase in demand.

Future Market Expectations

The plasticizer product data analyst believes that, in terms of costs, the prices of dioctyl phthalate (DOP) plasticizers rose significantly in January due to sharp increases in both isooctanol and phthalic anhydride prices, putting upward pressure on DOP costs and driving a substantial rise in plasticizer prices. However, in February, prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride declined, leading to a drop in DOP costs. On the supply side, in January, plasticizer manufacturers maintained a weak but stable operating rate, resulting in a slight decrease in plasticizer production. In February, however, manufacturers increased their operating rates, boosting plasticizer output and ensuring ample supply. On the demand side, tax rebate incentives spurred growth in downstream demand, causing a temporary increase in plasticizer demand during February and March. As stocking up for the Spring Festival neared its end, demand for plasticizers began to wane. Looking ahead, with declining costs and ample supply coupled with slowing demand growth, we expect DOP plasticizer prices to remain weakly stable in the coming period.