It is expected that the global crude oil market will maintain a tight balance in 2023

In 2023, the tightening of monetary policy tightening the lag in the global economy will further appear and continue to impact crude oil consumption. In addition, the low level of global oil and gas exploration capital expenditure determines that the supply of crude oil is low, and the OPEC+output policy and Russian oil supply still face uncertainty. On the whole, the global crude oil market is expected to maintain a tight balance, and oil prices will maintain the mid -to -high range.

Institutions continue to reduce the expectations of global economic growth expectations

Since 2022, the Russian -Ukraine conflict has led to a shortage of supply in some large commodities in the world, promoting the sharp rise in prices such as energy and agricultural products, and led to the continuous rise in global inflation levels. In June 2022, the US CPI rose to 9.1%year -on -year, the highest level in history, and the rise in energy prices made the CPI of the euro zone continuously. In October 2022, the CPI of the euro zone rose 10.6%year -on -year, renewing a record high.

In order to suppress inflation, the global multinational monetary policy continued to tighten in 2022, and the continuous radical interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States had a significant blow to the global economy. The institution has continuously reduced the expectations of global economic growth. The market generally believes that the global economic growth rate in 2023 will be significantly lower than 2022. IMF is expected to fall to 2.7%in 2023. The World Bank is expected to be 2.9%in 2022. It was 1.9%in 2023.

Upstream exploration investment is low, supply is constrained

Global oil and gas upstream exploration investment is low, and the supply of crude oil is lacking. Under the pressure of energy transformation, the overall trend of global oil and gas upstream capital expenditures in the past 10 years showed a decline. In 2020, global oil and gas upstream capital expenditure fell to US $ 315 billion, and in 2021, it rose slightly to $ 350 billion, but far below 2014 and before The level, the peak level of $ 670 billion in 2014, is expected to rise slightly to $ 390 billion in 2022.

Under the long -term pressure of energy transformation, the decline in the upstream investment of international oil giants has decreased more obvious. Global International Petroleum Corporation (IOC) upstream capital expenditure dropped from US $ 139 billion in 2014 to US $ 41 billion in 2021, and rose slightly to 500 in 2022 to 500. About 100 million dollars. Relatively speaking, the upstream capital expenditure of the State Petroleum Corporation (NOC) in the past two years has increased significantly compared with 2017. It is expected that the global oil and gas upstream capital expenditure will still maintain a small growth trend year -on -year in 2023. However, under the pressure of carbon emission reduction policies in various countries, the growth of traditional upstream industrial investment represented by oil giants will continue to be constrained. Essence Due to the low prosperity of global oil and gas upstream exploration investment, the remaining oil production capacity of major oil -producing countries such as the Middle East and other major oil -producing countries does not have the potential to increase production sharply. The growth of global crude oil supply continues to be limited in the year, and the overall supply of crude oil is still lacking elasticity.

OPEC+continues to control, and the output policy is constrained by political constraints. Since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia in 2020, global oil demand has been significantly impacted, and OPEC+has continuously balanced the market through yield adjustment and the price of oil suppression. In August 2022, OPEC+ended a historic production reduction agreement for up to 2 years. The output was fine -tuned in September and October, but in early October, a new production reduction agreement was reached. In 2022, most OPEC oil -producing countries' fiscal balanced oil prices were $ 60-70/barrel, which means that the oil -producing country in 2022 basically achieved fiscal surplus. According to the estimates of the agency, in 2023, the financial balance of OPEC oil -producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait will still be maintained at this level, which means that the future OPEC oil producers will not allow the demand for oil prices through further production reduction. powerful. After the outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine conflict in 2022, the relationship between OPEC+oil -producing countries and Europe and the United States became more complicated, which caused the adjustment of OPEC+output policy to be significantly increased due to political factors. Therefore Adjustment, at the same time, the relationship between oil -producing countries and the United States in the Middle East may have a great impact on the output policy of OPEC oil -producing countries.

Russian oil supply is subject to sanctions in Europe and the United States. After the outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine conflict in 2022, due to Europe and the United States' successive initiative to sanctions against Russia's energy, the external supply of Russia's energy was constrained, Russian crude oil production decreased, oil exports decreased, and oil exports flowed significantly. Although Europe and the United States have initiated a series of sanctions on Russia, the main change is the trade flow of Russian oil exports, which has a relatively small impact on Russia's total oil exports. After the Russian and Ukraine conflict, European countries have reduced their procurement of Oil on Russia, but Asian countries have increased their procurement of Oil on Russia, maintaining Russia's total crude oil export level. There are currently two -thirds of the crude oil out of the Russian port to Asia. In February 2022, a few weeks before the outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine conflict broke out, this proportion was less than two -fifth. Russian oil supply will continue to be limited in 2023, and oil production and exports may further decline. However, from the current sanctions, Russia's oil supply is relatively limited, and the changes in Russian oil supply depends on European and American oil sanctions on Russia and Russia's own countermeasures. In addition, based on strategic considerations, Europe will further compress the import of oil to Russia, and the Asian market will continue to undertake excess Russian oil.

The US shale oil industry maintains low prosperity. In 2022, the growth of US crude oil production is still slow. This is derived from the decline in North American oil and gas upstream capital expenditure that limits the growth of producers' crude oil output. After 2014, affected by the decline in oil prices, the capital expenditure of the North American oil and gas exploration company dropped significantly, fell to $ 99 billion in 2020, and in 2014 reached the peak of $ 233 billion. At present, American shale oil producers are still cautious about drilling the new well, and manufacturers are more willing to complete inventory wells to maintain shale oil output. Since the second half of 2020, the inventory well in the seven major shale oil production areas in the United States has declined. As of the end of October 2022, the total inventory well dropped to 4,408, and in the mid -2020 year, it reached 8807 %. According to the current consumption speed, the inventory well may be exhausted after two years. If the upstream investment activities of shale oil still maintain a low level, it may lead to a decline in shale oil production.

On the whole, due to the low capital expenditure of U.S. oil and gas upstream and limited output of major shale oil production areas in the United States, it is expected that the US crude oil production will remain slowly in 2023. In 2022, US crude oil production increases expected to be 500,000 barrels per day. In 2023, the increase is expected to be 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day, and the stream of the shale oil industry is still not high.

Weak economy continues to crack down on oil consumption

The global economy has continued to impact oil consumption. In 2022, global oil consumption is still in the stage of recovery after the epidemic and has been impacted by the weakened global economy. In 2023, the global economy still faces further downward pressure. Global oil consumption is expected to be further suppressed, especially the correlation between diesel consumption and economic trend, and the degree of affected is expected to be greater. At the same time, the gradual opening of the global aviation industry will not change, which is conducive to further recovery of aviation kerosene consumption. Based on the global expectations of the economic downturn, institutions have continuously lowered global oil consumption expectations. EIA, IEA, and OPEC expects the increase in global oil consumption in 2022 to 2.26 million barrels/day, 2.3 million barrels/day, 2.55 million barrels/day, 2023 in 2023, 2023, 2023, 2023, 2023, 2023, 2023, 2023, 2023, 2023, 2023, 2023, 2023. The increase was 1 million barrels/day, 1.7 million barrels/day, and 2.21 million barrels per day.

Global energy prices are high, and the demand for oil replacement is enhanced. In the past two years, the global geopolitical situation has continued to become turbulent, which has led to a sharp increase in energy prices such as natural gas, oil, and coal, especially in Europe and Asia's natural gas prices rose to a high level of history, and natural gas has become the most expensive energy source. Compared with natural gas, the price of crude oil is relatively low. According to the international thermal value metering unit, the current price of natural gas is three times the price of crude oil, and it has reached 5 times in August this year. -Apin replacement demand. Under this round of energy crisis, the replacement of oil on natural gas will occur more in the power field. In 2020, global oil power generation was 75.8 trillion watts, accounting for only 2.83%of global power generation. According to Goldman Sachs statistics, the total amount of oil that can be consumed by global oil power generation capacity in 2021 is about 20.62 million barrels per day. Essence The current expected oil-gas replacement demand will increase by 500,000 barrels per day.

Weak economy and high oil prices crack down on US oil consumption. Since the second quarter of 2022, due to the dual influence of economic weakened and high oil prices, the growth of oil demand in the United States has been obviously hindered, especially for gasoline consumption continues to be lower than the level of history and the level of 5 years. American residents' consumption has a high sensitivity to oil prices. In 2022, the average US gasoline price exceeded $ 5/gallon, a record high, which made US gasoline consumption significantly hit, and the peak season in the peak season of gasoline consumption in summer was not strong. After the epidemic, some US companies increased the proportion of home -office and reduced the demand for residents' work travel. This part of the demand may be permanent losses. As of mid -December 2022, the demand for refined oil in the United States is 4.2%lower than the same period of the previous year, and the demand for gasoline is 7.1%lower than the same period of the previous year. 9.6%in the same period. In 2023, international oil prices are expected to be at the mid -to -high level, and the US economy will further decline and face the risk of recession, and will continue to suppress American terminal oil consumption. However, as the United States has increased the export of refined oil products in Europe, to a certain extent, it will alleviate the pressure on the supply of domestic refined oil products and support the processing needs of crude oil in refineries.

China's crude oil import and processing demand continued to decline. Since 2022, due to national policies, domestic and foreign economic situations, and epidemic conditions, domestic crude oil imports and processing demand have continued to be limited. From January to November 2022, domestic crude oil imports reached 460 million tons, a total of 1.5%year -on -year. From the perspective of refineries, from January to October 2022, the total amount of domestic crude oil processing reached 556 million tons, a year -on -year decrease of 4.5%. From the perspective of terminal consumption, from January to October 2022, the cumulative consumption consumption of domestic refined oil (coal) in China increased by 0.22%year -on -year, and in the past four years, three years have declined. From January to October 2022, the cumulative consumption consumption of domestic gasoline, diesel, and kerosene had decreased by 2.03%year -on -year, an increase of 29.13%, and a decrease of 52.93%. In 2023, the total amount of non -state -owned crude oil imports in China was 243 million tons, which has been maintained at this level for the third consecutive year. The economic performance is low in public health events. It is expected that domestic crude oil imports and processing demand in 2023 will still be limited. However, the relaxation of domestic policy to a certain extent will promote the improvement of terminal oil consumption.

Crude oil prices remain in the mid -to -high range

In 2023, the tightening of monetary policy tightening to the global economy's lag will further appear, especially in the first half of the year, the global economy still faces further downward pressure, and it is expected to stabilize the restoration in the second half of the year. Crude oil supply side, low global oil and gas upstream exploration capital expenditure means that the increase in global crude oil output will continue to be limited, and the supply of crude oil supply lacks elasticity. At the same time, the global geographical turbulence will continue to disturb the oil supply end. The adjustment of OPEC+output policy will integrate more political purposes. Under European and American sanctions, Russia's supply will continue to be limited. The demand side of crude oil, the global economy continues to weaken and the negative feedback of oil consumption of high oil prices will continue. It is expected that the growth rate of global oil demand in 2023 will decline. The speed will fall within 2%.

In summary, the global crude oil market is expected to maintain a tight balance in 2023. In 2023, the macro factors will determine the top range of oil prices. The impact of geopolitics on the supply side of crude oil will determine the bottom range of the oil price. In the case of benchmark, it is expected that the central oil price operating center will decline slightly from 2022, but from the historical price level, oil prices will still be maintained in the high level in 2023.