Cost-Driven: October Polyester Staple Fiber Prices First Drop, Then Rise

October 30th, according to news

According to the commodity market analysis system, the price of polyester staple fiber in China first declined and then increased in October. As of October 30, the average market price for polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) was 6,356 CNY per ton, a decrease of 0.94% from the beginning of the month.

After the holiday, the market price of polyester staple fiber in China continued to decline. The main reasons were the weak macroeconomic environment caused by tariff issues, and the commissioning of new PTA facilities, which, along with weakening costs and weak demand, led to a continuous negative sentiment, causing the price of polyester staple fiber to drop. In the middle to late part of the month, as oil prices rebounded from their lows, costs and overall market sentiment improved, and downstream purchases increased during the traditional peak season, boosting the price of polyester staple fiber.

As of October 29, the settlement price for the U.S. WTI crude oil futures December contract was $60.48 per barrel, while the December Brent crude oil futures settled at $64.92 per barrel. OPEC+ is highly likely to maintain its current production increase plan in December, keeping supply conditions relatively loose. With no significant improvement expected on the demand side, the balance between supply and demand remains skewed. Meanwhile, there have been no new developments in the geopolitical landscape, providing only limited support for oil prices.

In October, the PTA market in China showed a trend of first declining and then rising. As of October 30, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,552 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.93% from the beginning of the month. The main factories in Northeast China have restarted their maintenance facilities, and the current operating rate in the industry is around 78%. Moving forward, 2.7 million tons of new PTA capacity in East China has already started trial production, and overall, PTA production is expected to continue to increase. Additionally, if PTA companies actively reduce production due to low processing fees, there may not be an inventory accumulation of PTA in November and December, which could push up the PTA market. However, if the reduction in production is limited, it will still not change the current situation of ample supply.

As rising costs prompted yarn factories to raise prices, the market has since stabilized after the initial hikes, given limited demand growth. However, following mid-October, colder weather combined with the Double 11 shopping festival boosted winter fabric demand, leading to an improvement in downstream weaving orders. This, in turn, has encouraged textile companies to actively replenish their raw material inventories, easing inventory pressure on downstream yarn manufacturers. Overall, though, "Golden October" failed to deliver its usual strength, with only modest seasonal gains expected—most businesses are focused on working off previous raw material stockpiles rather than ramping up new purchases, keeping procurement levels aligned with essential needs.

Analysts believe that, in the short term, cost support and the gradual improvement in demand are boosting polyester staple fiber prices, suggesting a generally strong yet volatile price trend. However, with the commissioning of new PTA plants and the gradual resumption of previously shut-down units, cost-side support is expected to weaken. Additionally, as the peak demand season winds down, upward momentum for polyester staple fiber prices will likely be constrained. Moving forward, it will remain crucial to monitor both cost fluctuations and end-user demand dynamics.