Acrylic Prices Soar by Over 1 Year—Short-Term at High Levels, Medium-Term Under Pressure

April 1st news

The market analysis system shows that as of April 1, 2026, the spot price of acrylic acid was 13,116.67 CNY/ton, with a daily change rate of 0.00%. The market in China maintained a high-level consolidation this week.

Historical Range: Over the past year, the price has ranged from a low of 5,850.00 CNY/ton to a high of 13,116.67 CNY/ton, with a median value of 9,483.34 CNY/ton and an average value of 7,092.71 CNY/ton. The current price is significantly higher than the average, at a premium of 85%.

I. Cost Side:

This week, the propylene market in China has been consolidating at a high level after an earlier rise, with prices slightly retreating but still generally strong. The firmness of crude oil and some plant maintenance provided support, though the upward momentum in the market has slowed. Currently, propylene is still operating at a high level, providing clear cost support to acrylic acid, which is a key factor in maintaining the high-level consolidation of acrylic acid prices.

II. Supply Side:

1. China's main acrylic acid facilities have entered the spring maintenance period collectively, with the industry operating at consistently low capacity. This has significantly reduced the available supply of spot goods, directly driving prices from around 8,500 CNY/ton in mid-January to over 13,000 CNY/ton, perfectly matching the steep upward trend in the system's price curve.

2. The current price is at an absolute historical high, and the profit margin for production enterprises is sufficient. The willingness to control supply, hold back sales, and maintain high prices is extremely strong, further reinforcing the tight supply situation in the spot market and supporting the maintenance of high prices.

III. Demand Side:

The current price of 13116.67 CNY/ton is over 85% higher than the average price of the past year. The downstream industries such as coatings, adhesives, and building waterproofing in China are showing a continuous decline in their acceptance of high prices. Procurement is mainly driven by rigid demand, and there is a lack of large-scale inventory replenishment needs, leading to a stagnation in prices at high levels (daily change rate 0.00%), entering a consolidation phase.

2. The traditional peak season of “Golden March” is coming to an end, with downstream industries seeing a marginal decline in operating rates. As a result, the incremental demand support is weakening and can no longer offset the price increases driven by supply-side contraction. The interplay between supply and demand is intensifying, and upward price momentum has become markedly insufficient.

3. At high prices, downstream enterprises actively clear their inventory, traders' willingness to stockpile decreases, and the activity level of the spot market declines. The price curve in the system flattening at a high level is a direct reflection of the weakness in demand in China.

IV. Future Price Trend Forecast Based on the Commodity Market Information System

Combining the spot market analysis methods (position characteristics + trend characteristics), the phased forecast for the future price trend of acrylic acid in China is as follows:

(1) Short-term (1-2 weeks): High-level consolidation and trading within a range of 12,800–13,200 CNY/ton.

Positional Characteristics: The current price is at the upper end of the 5-level positional range (1 point). The cumulative positional score for 10/20/30 days totals only 3 points, far below the 9-point threshold required for a buy signal, indicating that there is no solid positional basis for further upward momentum.

Trend characteristics: The short-term moving average (10-day) is trending upward, but the medium- and long-term moving averages (30-day and 60-day) are showing a slowing upward slope. Prices are “entangled” with the moving averages, indicating weakening upward momentum.

Supply and demand logic: Supply-side maintenance supports the price floor, while high prices on the demand side suppress the price ceiling. Prices will fluctuate within the current high range, making it difficult for a significant one-sided increase. Special attention should be paid to the support strength at the 13,000 CNY/ton integer level.

(2) Mid-term (1-2 months): Fluctuating and declining, gradually returning to a rational range.

Positional Characteristics: The current price is in a year-long overvaluation, trading at a premium of 38% over the median value of 9,483.34 CNY/ton and a premium of 85% over the average value of 7,092.71 CNY/ton. The position score remains persistently low, and downward pressure from higher levels continues to accumulate.

Trend characteristics: As the major plant maintenance comes to an end and industry operating rates rebound, the short-term moving averages will begin to turn downward, while the medium- and long-term moving averages will see their upward slopes narrow. The moving average system will shift from “rising” to “entangled,” eventually entering a downward channel.

Supply and demand logic: As the supply-side contraction eases, the peak season benefits on the demand side are fading, and the supply-demand gap is gradually narrowing. Prices will fluctuate downward from historical highs, with the core fluctuation range gradually shifting to 11,000-12,000 CNY/ton, returning to a reasonable range centered around 9,483.34 CNY/ton.

In summary: If plant maintenance extends beyond expectations, or if geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East lead to a sharp rise in the price of propylene—a key raw material—cost-side support will strengthen, potentially driving prices higher once again. On the other hand, if downstream demand remains persistently weak, or if newly added production capacity is brought online ahead of schedule, supply-side pressure will surge suddenly, causing prices to fall rapidly and possibly break below the 12,000 CNY/ton mark.