After 'explosive' growth, the isopropanol market returns to rationality

In the first half of this year, global public health incidents continued to ferment, and protective measures in various countries were continuously upgraded. Demand for protective products has increased significantly. Isopropanol is favored by foreign customers as a disinfectant, and demand has shown "explosive" growth. Driven by this favorable situation, the isopropanol market rose fiercely. According to chemical online statistics, taking the East China market as an example, the market price of isopropanol rose from 6,600 yuan (ton price, the same below) at the beginning of the year to a high of 140 million yuan in early June, an increase of about 112%. . Starting from the third quarter, under the combined effect of the weakening of cost support, the reduction of foreign trade orders and the launch of new capacity, market prices have gradually adjusted back. As of now, prices have temporarily fluctuated in the range of 7000-8000 yuan.　　

In terms of cost, international oil prices are still under certain pressure. Although they are currently showing a volatile upward trend, the increase is limited, and the overall price will remain at a relatively low level. After the market price of the raw material acetone hit a new high in the second quarter, the downstream industries, except for isopropanol plants, were cautiously taking orders. Other industries were losing money under high cost. The production of bisphenol A and MMA plants continued to drop, and the MIBK plant was completely shut down. , The demand for acetone decreases, and the acetone market has to be adjusted down rationally. In addition, some overseas factories have gradually resumed work, and acetone imports have risen steadily, but the demand is hard to come by. Supply and demand are full of negatives, and the acetone market continues to decline, which is weak to support the cost of isopropanol.

On the supply side, the new capacity of isopropanol is planned to be put into production, and the supply side is under pressure. It is reported that Huizhou Zhongchuang 50,000 tons/year, Lihua Yiweiyuan Chemical 100,000 tons/year, and Zibo Nuo Chemical 50,000 tons/year 3 sets of isopropanol plants are planned to be put into operation during the year, with a total of 200,000 tons of new capacity. By then, the domestic isopropanol production capacity will reach about 1.1 million tons/year, an increase of about 22% year-on-year. At present, due to the limited follow-up of demand, after this part of the new capacity enters the market, it will further increase the supply pressure on the isopropanol market.

From the perspective of import and export, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs, domestic isopropanol exports in the first half of the year were 157,000 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons over the same period last year, an increase of 60.2%. Among them, the monthly export volume in April was as high as 57 thousand tons, a record high. With the gradual decrease in foreign trade orders, exports fell to 28,000 tons in June. At present, the public health incident has not yet seen an inflection point. Whether the subsequent purchase of isopropanol will explode again remains to be followed up. In addition, the restart of Shell's isopropanol plant in Singapore has also put pressure on domestic isopropanol exports.

In terms of demand, with the global outbreak of the new crown epidemic, alcohol disinfectant has become a star product this year. At present, the most commonly used alcohol disinfectants in the world are mainly ethanol and isopropanol. Due to different usage habits, ethanol is mainly used in China and isopropanol is mainly used abroad. As the good foreign trade gradually faded, the expensive isopropanol was gradually replaced by other alcohol-based sterilization products, and factory export orders were also significantly reduced. The composition of domestic isopropanol consumption is mainly concentrated in the fields of solvents and chemical intermediates. The epidemic will bring certain changes to everyone's living habits. For example, masks and disinfectants may become necessities in life. Isopropanol has a better disinfection effect than alcohol. In the future, the domestic disinfection market may use isopropyl alcohol as a disinfectant to increase the demand.

To sum up, the production capacity and output of isopropanol will continue to grow during the year, and the supply side is not favorable. Therefore, downstream exports will still be an important factor affecting market trends. At present, the price of isopropanol is still at a relatively high level, and the export advantage is not large. However, as a medical disinfectant, the demand for isopropanol will always exist. As the price returns to the normal range of previous years, isopropanol may be in When the foreign trade market resumes its competitiveness, the market will return to a state of relatively balanced supply and demand.