20 kinds of chemical products market forecast

The global epidemic is continuing and accelerating, with the cumulative number of infections exceeding 22 million. The new US economic stimulus will invest more than 1.4 trillion US dollars, but it has not been finalized.

The epidemic situation, crude oil production, economic data, the exchange rate of the US dollar and weather are the main factors influencing in the near future. As a whole, oil prices have begun to move in the direction of the 45-50 range.

Bureau of Statistics: The official manufacturing PMI in August was 51%. In August, the comprehensive PMI output index was 54.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to recover.

In 2019, the profit margin of the banking industry fell by more than 10%, and the financial market began to give profits to industrial enterprises.

Ministry of Commerce: Promote the establishment of a long-term mechanism to stop food waste. Xi Jinping emphasized the construction of a number of infrastructure projects, the Sichuan-Tibet Railway was highlighted, and three major investment paths emerged.

The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued the "Announcement on the Implementation of Resource Tax Issues", which will come into effect on September 1, 2020.

Four departments including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Agricultural Film Management Measures", which will be implemented on September 1, 2020. The "Measures" clearly prohibit the production, sale, and use of agricultural films that are explicitly prohibited by the state or that do not meet mandatory national standards.

The new national chemical fertilizer commercial reserve management method will be implemented.

Some chemical products market forecast:

1. Forecast: Last week, methanol inventory at East China and South China ports continued to decline. The prices in the northern producing areas are at a historically low level, and the manufacturers' shipments are good, and the quotations are gradually firming. In the short term, the demand in the traditional peak season of September and October will improve. The methanol market is expected to fluctuate strongly this week.

2. Forecast: The PVC market is still weak in supply and demand, and the traditional peak season is approaching. Pay attention to the release of demand. Considering that the current spot market is relatively small and demand may improve, it is expected that the PVC spot market will continue to fluctuate strongly this week.

3. Forecast: Last week, toluene and xylene port inventory dropped slightly, and downstream demand is still weak. Oil prices continue to fluctuate and rise. There is still no major improvement in macro factors. It is expected that the toluene and xylene market will fluctuate with the news, and the range will fluctuate strongly.

4. Prediction: The raw materials propylene and n-butanol are high-level finishing, and the cost pressure of acrylic acid and ester manufacturers is obvious, and the overall operating rate will remain around 60%. Manufacturers have the intention to be very expensive. The demand side rushed to the traditional peak season. It is expected that the spot market of acrylic acid and ester will continue to sort out, and there are signs of rising gradually.

5. Forecast: The maleic anhydride market rose sharply last week, and the market's enthusiasm was unexpected. Taking into account the large increase last week and the downstream feelings of resistance to high prices, it is expected that the spot market will run smoothly and there is still a possibility of a small increase before the supply and demand does not undergo major unexpected changes.

6. Under the pressure of high holding cost, styrene merchants have more control over the pace of low outflow, but the market will also face certain resistance when breaking through upwards. Pay attention to downstream demand trends.

7. Cost and demand game, it is estimated that the DOP market may fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

8. Recently, the market for phthalic anhydride ushered in a rebound. The supply is good, but lack of demand cooperation, it is estimated that the short-term growth rate of the phthalic anhydride market will be restricted.

9. If there is no significant negative impact, it is estimated that the MMA market may easily rise but never fall in the short term.

10. Fundamental support is still insufficient, and it is estimated that it will be difficult for the short-term pure benzene market to rise.

11. Based on the consideration of holding costs, it is estimated that the phenol market will not be too bearish in the short term.

12. Last week, the domestic acetic acid market first fell and then rose. Although Anhui Huayi plans to shut down for overhaul this week and Tianjin’s load is low, Hualu and Yankuang have returned to normal and resumed delivery. The industry as a whole started at a high level and the supply is not tight; large-scale downstream demand is stable; the U.S. hurricane has caused some local acetic acid plants Storage and parking are possible, but if there is no parking, exports will improve. It is expected that the market will continue to rise this week. Otherwise, there will still be upward pressure.

13. Last week, the domestic butanone market was mainly consolidating and partially adjusted. At present, there is limited support for equipment maintenance, and the recovery of downstream demand is slow. However, as the end of the month approaches, we will wait and see the factory's follow-up price policy guidelines. It is expected that the market will consolidate within a narrow range this week.

14. The domestic ethylene glycol market fluctuated widely last week. International oil prices have generally fluctuated and the trend of rising prices has not changed; the speed of delivery at the main port and the gradual decrease in the arrival of import shipments, short-term ports are expected to depot; the downstream weaving industry has increased orders in autumn and winter, and the start load has increased steadily. It is expected that the market will fluctuate strongly this week.

15. The domestic diethylene glycol market fluctuated at a high level last week. The overall trend of international oil prices fluctuating and rising has not changed; the main port de-stocking stage is more repetitive, and the import source inventory is expected to shrink; the demand side performance is average. It is expected that the market will fluctuate strongly this week.

16. The overall trend of international oil prices fluctuating and rising; the sharp increase in petrochemical prices at the beginning of the month is good for the market; the current high-pressure supply is in short supply, and holders are reluctant to increase the price; the golden, nine, and silver ten peak seasons are coming, and downstream demand is expected to improve, but the current downstream inquiries The enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high. In summary, it is expected that the focus of the PE market may rise this week.

17. The overall upward trend of international oil prices has remained unchanged; most petrochemical companies have delivered shipments at high prices, which has significantly boosted the confidence of the industry; in the short term, petrochemical destocking speeds have been smooth; Jinjiu has arrived, although downstream factories continue to purchase moderately on demand. Subjectively and cautiously, in general, the enthusiasm for entering the market has become higher. In summary, it is expected that the PP market will fluctuate strongly this week.

18. Ships still arrive in the later period, coupled with the lack of bright spots in demand, it is estimated that the short-term growth of the acetone market may be limited.

19. Some devices of PTA are overhauled or reduced, and supply pressure is reduced, but high inventory still suppresses the upward trend. The peak season is approaching and demand is expected to improve. The volatility is expected to run slightly stronger, and there is no possibility of a large unilateral rise.

20. The volume of imported rubber goods is tight, but the downstream demand has not been effectively amplified. The futures market moves along the upward channel. Taking into account that the rubber price is in the historical low range, the downside space is limited, and the operation is to buy on the dip.

There will always be accidents in the market, and the situation may change rapidly, so you operate at your own risk. Stay tuned for more timely market reports!