Behind the TDI surge

On August 31, the European BASF TDI encountered force majeure. On September 1, the TDI plant of Covestro North America was short of raw materials and closed before the hurricane, declaring force majeure. After that, the market continued to increase prices, rising as much as RMB 2,600/ton this week. The current low-price inventory in the market is insufficient, and exports rebounded and reached a new high this year last month. Suppliers are pulling up strongly, giving the market higher guidance prices, and the market mentality is positive, most of which are bullish. Unlike the strong rally in July, this month is supported by many positive factors.

Looking back at 2016, the price of TDI exceeded RMB 50,000 (actually, the price rose by RMB 20,000 in just 5 days in October 2016, and then gradually fell). This year, the situation is similar and different: the same is the market downturn before the price increase. Manufacturers suffered large losses and continued for a long period of time. At the same time, the manufacturer’s supply suffered force majeure, which kicked off the sharp price increase. The export demand increased sharply, which coincided with the golden nine silver ten. Demand is picking up, and market inventory is gradually being consumed in the process of price increases. The difference is that domestic demand has not fully recovered this year, and the proportion of radical mentality has decreased. It has continued to rise in the second quarter of 2015, and reached its peak in October, while the rise in 2020 Obviously relatively weak.

The average market price in 2018 is about 25,000 yuan, and the average market price in 2019 is about 13,000 yuan. In terms of manufacturers' profit expectations, manufacturers will continue to increase this year. Follow-up needs to continue to pay attention to the manufacturer's dynamics and market follow-up.

Today's East China market price is 1,6000-17,000 yuan, an increase of 1,000 CNY/ton from yesterday, and the quotation is confusing.

Suddenly remembered the polypropylene and melt blown cloth at the beginning of this year, the market and opportunities are still many.