On 5 September, U.S. Central Command said American forces struck three Iranian crude oil tankers in Gulf waters after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fired ballistic missiles at two U.S. Navy vessels. The strikes were carried out by U.S. military assets as a retaliatory action; Iran later claimed attacks on other tankers and American targets, although parts of its account were disputed by the United States.
The development marks a more serious phase of the maritime conflict. Tankers are no longer merely commercial vessels operating near a dangerous waterway. They are becoming direct targets. U.S. Central Command later released footage showing one tanker sinking, while Iranian media reported that at least one of the vessels was attacked near Kharg Island, the country’s principal crude-export hub.
For the chemical industry, the immediate question is not how much crude the three ships were carrying. It is how the attacks will change the price and availability of transport. Gulf shipping routes support exports of naphtha, condensate, LPG, methanol, sulphur and polymer products, alongside crude oil. Once tankers are exposed to direct military action, shipowners, charterers, insurers and port operators have to reconsider whether they will accept a voyage—and at what price.
War-risk insurance is likely to be the first pressure point. Premiums can be repriced quickly, while insurers may narrow coverage or demand higher levels of retained risk. Chemical tankers do not need to be attacked directly to feel the effect. A wider risk classification for Gulf waters can raise freight quotations, demurrage exposure and crew-related surcharges across multiple vessel classes.
Available tonnage is the second concern. If owners reduce Gulf calls, ships suitable for carrying liquid chemicals, LPG and refined products may become tied up in longer routes or extended waiting periods. Asian buyers, including those in China, India, South Korea and Southeast Asia, may respond by increasing safety stocks or seeking cargoes from the United States, Europe and alternative Asian suppliers.
A worldwide chemical shortage cannot yet be inferred. Cargoes are still moving, and transit conditions may change with naval protection, port arrangements and the military situation. What has changed is the risk threshold: companies are no longer asking only whether a vessel can pass through the region, but whether it can arrive safely and remain insured.
By 7 September, that concern was still visible in the oil market. Brent had gained about 7.8% over the previous week, while WTI was up nearly 10%. Continued tanker attacks would reinforce feedstock and freight pressure across petrochemical chains, even before any physical shortage reaches downstream plants.
