Business Society BPI Index October Price Fluctuation Analysis and November Forecast

November 04, News

I. Analysis of BPI Price Fluctuations in October 2025

As shown in the "BPI Data for the Past Year," the BPI index rose slightly from 865 points at the beginning of October 2025 to 869 points by the end of the month, marking a modest monthly increase of approximately 0.46%.

This increase was primarily driven by strong gains in certain sectors among the sample commodities, which offset declines in others. The specific reasons are as follows:

Primary Driver of Gains: The upward momentum is heavily concentrated in select commodities from the energy and chemical industries.

The chemical industry saw significant price hikes in products like sulfur (+23.58%), sulfuric acid (+17.12%), and bromine (+7.53%), which became the key drivers behind the upward movement of the BPI. This could be attributed to rising upstream raw material costs or short-term supply constraints.

Energy sector: Significant increases in petroleum coke (+17.92%) and thermal coal (+13.29%) reflect strong energy demand, likely linked to factors such as winter stockpiling.

The non-ferrous metals sector saw positive contributions to the index, driven by gains in cobalt (+17.45%), silver (+5.38%), and copper (+5.35%).

Main Downward Pressure: The decline is also widespread, particularly within the chemical industry and in certain downstream manufacturing sectors.

The chemical industry is experiencing significant divergence: while certain chemicals have seen sharp price increases, others like pure benzene (-11.57%), iso-octanol (-10.75%), n-butanol (-10.54%), and acetone (-5.71%) have plummeted—reflecting divergent supply-and-demand dynamics across various segments of the industry chain.

The rubber, plastics, and textile industries are experiencing widespread weakness: products such as PA6 (-5.59%), cis-butadiene rubber (-4.46%), polyester series (-1.23% to -2.89%), and nylon FDY (-2.24%) have all declined significantly, suggesting that downstream terminal demand—particularly in sectors like automotive and textiles/apparel—may remain sluggish.

Building materials and select agricultural products weakened: Declines in glass (-11.22%), asphalt (-10.05%), corn (-6.06%), and palm oil (-4.42%) point to insufficient demand in construction activity and certain consumer sectors.

Summary: The slight increase in the BPI index in October was a structural one, not a broad-based rally. It was primarily driven by strong price movements in upstream energy and basic chemical raw materials, while downstream manufacturing goods generally remained weak, creating a "strong at the top, weak at the bottom" pattern.

II. Forecast for BPI Performance in November 2025

Based on the index levels and commodity performance at the end of October, the forecast for the BPI trend in November is as follows:

Short-term momentum wanes: BPI already showed signs of stagnation and a pullback during the final days of October (October 27–31), dropping from 870 points to 869. This suggests that the upward momentum seen in October may be losing strength.

Product performance signals upcoming pullback pressure:

In October, commodities that experienced significant price increases—such as sulfur and petroleum coke—have accumulated substantial downside risk in the short term, making it unlikely that their upward momentum will sustain into November.

Meanwhile, in October, the decline was broad-based and widespread across many commodities, with some items—such as pure benzene and glass—experiencing particularly steep price drops. Given that demand has shown no significant improvement, this weak trend is likely to persist into November.

Seasonal factors: In November, China enters the traditional low-demand season, especially in sectors such as construction and building materials, which will further weaken the support for related commodities.

Preliminary Conclusion: The BPI index is expected to face downward pressure in November, likely showing a mild pullback or a weak, choppy trend. In October, the core drivers supporting the index (energy and certain chemical products) struggled to gain further momentum, while widespread declines continued to weigh on the overall performance. As a result, the BPI is likely to consolidate around its current level (869 points) before gradually easing lower.

III. Industries Requiring Special Attention

Based on the commodity price increase and decrease list in October, the following industries need to be closely monitored in November, as their divergence and trends will directly determine the direction of the BPI in China:

Chemical industry: This is the most critical and also the most complex sector. Key areas to focus on include:

Can strength persist? Whether prices of leading commodities like sulfur and sulfuric acid can stabilize will significantly impact the index.

Will the decline expand further: Will deeply discounted products like pure benzene, cyclohexanone, and acetic acid halt their downward trend, or will their losses spread to other chemical products?

How the industry's intense polarization evolves in November is at the heart of BPI's performance.

Energy Sector: Watch whether the upward momentum in petroleum coke and thermal coal will come to an end, and whether the decline in refined oil products like diesel and gasoline will deepen. Energy prices serve as a critical cost support for the entire industrial system.

Rubber & Plastics and Textile Industries: As typical downstream sectors, their persistently weak prices are a direct signal of sluggish terminal demand. If prices of commodities like PA6, cis-butadiene rubber, and polyester continue to decline, it will reinforce market expectations of tepid demand, putting pressure on overall commodity market sentiment.

Summary: The trend of the BPI in November will mainly depend on the internal competition within the chemical industry (strong products vs. weak products) and the tug-of-war between energy price support and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to closely monitor the commodity price dynamics in the key industries mentioned above.