Coal prices are likely to continue to rise

The lack of supply of low sulfur steam coal varieties in northern ports has led to a rapid rise in their trading prices. In particular, the price of low sulfur Mongolian coal is 5 CNY/ton higher than the index quoted price, while Jinbei coal with slightly higher sulfur content is in line with the index level, which promotes the market sentiment to continue to improve and the coal price index rises rapidly.

Under the trading mode that coal enterprises generally refer to index pricing, the spot price rises accordingly, and traders are reluctant to sell. Superimposed on the shortage of low sulfur and high-quality coal and the increase of inquiry, the coal price in the market has entered a cycle rising mode. With the approach of maintenance of two sections and Daqin line, the enthusiasm of users for rush transportation is improved, and the users with insufficient quantity of Changxie coal begin to accept high price coal, which makes the coal price continue to rise.

1. The import of coal is blocked, which is conducive to the domestic coal market. Last week, due to the rapid rise in coal prices, the downstream market boycotted acceptance, and trading in the port market was not active. However, the import of coal is still tight. Some power enterprises in Guangdong and Fujian are eager to increase the quota and customs clearance of imported coal. However, the actual situation is that those with import quota can be cleared orderly, and one ton of imported coal beyond the quota can not be imported. Some power plants began to send ships to rush to the northern port to rush coal. China's import clearance policy is still strictly controlled, which supports the further improvement of domestic trade demand for steam coal in the later stage, and also forms a support for the spot coal price of northern ports in the near future.

2. The port is short of high-quality resources. Affected by two accidents on Daqin line last month, the railway department's dispatch and command was more refined, and the coal transportation volume has not returned to the normal level. The storage of Qinhuangdao port is maintained at a low level of 5 million tons, and the storage of Jingtang Port and Caofeidian port is also at a low level. The low sulfur and high-quality coal in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and other places are out of stock and out of stock. In addition to the coal that has been fulfilled by the long-term cooperation contract, the coal source in the high-quality market is in short supply. The number of vessels that have reached the port to pull coal and ships that have gone through formalities have been increasing in Bohai Rim ports. The anchor ships in Qinhuangdao port have risen to the highest level since this year, which indicates that the seller's market pattern has been formed and supports the continuous rise of spot coal prices. Improve the enthusiasm of power plant. After the hot and sultry summer, the inventory of power plant has been actively consumed, and the coal storage has generally decreased. Up to now, the national key power plant inventory is 76.8 million tons, 9.98 million tons lower than the beginning of August, and 6.96 million tons less than the level of the same period last year; the available days of coal storage have decreased by 5 days compared with the beginning of August, and the demand for replenishment of power plants has increased. It is also understood that coal storage in some power plants in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai has also decreased significantly. With the dry season approaching in October, the pressure of thermal power plants will increase, and some power plants will replenish their reservoirs in advance. 4. The impact of centralized repair of Datong Qinhuangdao line in autumn. Datong Qinhuangdao railway line will be overhauled in October, and centralized maintenance will be carried out in autumn from October 7 to October 31. According to historical experience, the coal transportation capacity of Daqin line will be reduced to 1.05-1.1 million tons. At that time, the number of steam coal arriving at the port will be reduced, which will lead to the increase of ship pressure in ports around Bohai Sea, and will have a positive impact on the rise of port coal price.