Is the price of coal on the eve of rising?

In recent more than a week, the news on the steam coal market is flying. On the surface, the overall coal price is stable and slightly rising. The optimists believe that the coal price is on the eve of the rise, while the pessimists believe that it is just like this, even if the increase is not large.

Today's think tanks believe that positive factors are accumulating and the market will be more optimistic in the next few weeks. Of course, pessimists believe that this is the case, even if the rise is not big, it is not entirely wrong, and the current market is indeed the same. According to today's think tank China coal big data, on August 18, Fengkuang steam coal index guide price, QinGang 5500 was 562 CNY/ton, the same as yesterday, rose 4 yuan in recent five days. Yesterday, several other steam coal price indicators on the market, on the whole, were also maintaining stability. At present, all kinds of news are flying all over the world, including official announcements, market rumors, bad news and good news. Today's think tanks think that there should be more favorable factors on the whole, which are reflected in three aspects:

1. Tight supply. According to the latest data of the National Bureau of statistics, in July 2020, China's raw coal production was 317.94 million tons, down 3.7% year-on-year and 4.9% month on month. In July, 26.1 million tons of coal were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 20.6%. Recently, there is also a stirring factor: the illegal mining incident in Muli, Qinghai Province. Officials have been arrested one after another. Today's think tank thinks that sooner or later, this incident will affect the main production areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, and it will not be limited to the hot discussion of Shenmu mingpan.

2. Demand has improved. In July, China's electricity consumption increased by 2.3% year-on-year, and the bad thing was that the thermal power decreased by 0.7% year on year. According to the latest news released by the national development and Reform Commission, in August, the national daily power generation and unified power load increased rapidly. On August 3, 10 and 11, the national daily power generation and unified power load reached a record high. According to the preliminary analysis, it has the influence of the rapid growth of the continuous high temperature air conditioning load, and also reflects the steady recovery of the national economy. In this way, the situation in August is certainly better than that in July.

3. The mood is bullish. It is obvious that futures prices continue to be higher than spot prices. On August 13, the price of Zhengzhou Coal 2009, the main contract, once reached 579.2 CNY/ton, but it has dropped a little, but the price is also about 568. In the past week, the futures price has been more than 10 yuan higher than the spot price, and the market is very bullish. On the whole, today's think tank thinks that the market is relatively bullish at present. Judging from the increase of anchor ships in the four port areas around the Bohai Sea, the enthusiasm of coastal power plants to pull coal northward has increased. I dare not say that the rising market will come soon, but it should not be far away!