In 2020, the focus of mobile coal price will continue to move downward

"It is estimated that in 2019, the average price of cci5500 power coal price index is 593 CNY/ton, 61 CNY/ton lower than last year's average price; in 2020, the focus of power coal price will continue to move down to 540 CNY/ton, 53 CNY/ton lower than 2019." Liu Xinhua, deputy general manager of Fenwei energy, made the above prediction at the 7th international power coal resources and Market Summit Forum held in Guangzhou on the 21st. Liu Xinhua gave a speech entitled "supply and demand analysis of China's power coal market in 2019 and outlook for 2020" at the conference. Her wonderful report was highly concerned by all the participants, rich and detailed data, in-depth analysis and interpretation of the policy and coal price trend in the later period, and widely praised by everyone. Liu Xinhua, deputy general manager of Fenwei energy, made a keynote speech: "after nearly four years of practice, China's de capacity task has been completed, the focus of supply side reform has shifted to the construction and release of advanced capacity, the coal industry has entered the capacity expansion cycle, and the power coal supply capacity continues to improve. The inspection of safety and environmental protection is increasing, but with the continuous investment of safety and environmental protection, the overall impact on coal and downstream production is weakening. On the whole, in 2019, the state will increase supply, increase cooperation, increase transportation capacity and other means to stabilize coal prices.

The supply of power coal will be tight before and loose after, and the price will be high before and low after. The market will shift from the basic balance of supply and demand to loose, and the price will fluctuate downward, with a smaller amplitude. " Liu Xinhua said. She also predicted that in 2020, the power coal supply capacity will continue to improve, the railway transportation capacity will increase, the imported coal will remain at a high level, the supply growth rate will be faster than the demand growth, the supply and demand will continue to be relaxed, and the market-oriented pricing mechanism will suppress the medium and long-term coal price. In terms of supply, affected by safety and environmental inspection in the first half of 2019, the increment of power coal supply is limited; in the second half of 2019, the output rebounded rapidly and is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter. It is estimated that the raw coal output in 2019 will be 3.798 billion tons, an increase of 3.2% year on year; the power coal supply will be 3.118 billion tons, an increase of 1.7% year on year. In 2020, coal production capacity will continue to increase and release. It is expected that raw coal production will reach 3.873 billion tons and power coal supply will reach 3.183 billion tons, an increase of 2% year on year. In terms of demand, Liu Xinhua said that in 2019, the growth rate of thermal power fell, coal consumption of coastal power plants fell, high hydropower generation and increase of trans regional power transmission restrained the demand for power coal in coastal areas. The proportion of thermal power consumption in power coal fell slightly, but it is still the main driving force for the growth of power coal consumption. In 2020, the demand for power coal is expected to grow slightly, with a slight drop in growth rate, of which the growth rate of thermal power is small pick up.

In terms of imported coal, China plays a crucial role in the price change of global seaborne coal market. "The high price difference between domestic and foreign coal, the demand for guaranteed supply in peak season and the diversified procurement strategy of end users drive the import demand to remain strong, which also reduces the coal consumption cost of downstream users." "Towards the end of the year, the import quota was exhausted, the import coal restrictions were tightened, and individual customs suspended the berthing and customs clearance of imported coal," Liu Xinhua said Since this year, China's monthly import of power coal has reached new highs. From January to September, the total import of power coal is 190 million tons, and it is estimated that the annual import of power coal is 229 million tons. Liu Xinhua said that in 2020, the coal import restriction policy will continue to level control requirements. Considering the improvement of domestic power coal supply and transportation capacity, it is expected that the power coal import volume will drop to 216 million tons in a small way, still maintaining a high level.