Domestic and foreign market analysis: the butanol market has serious surplus

1. Butanol market at home and abroad

As of the end of 2018, the world's butanol production capacity was 16.5 million tons/year, and the domestic production capacity of butanol and octanol was 5.14 million tons/year, ranking first in the world.

my country's butanol production capacity increased from 3.7 million tons in 2014 to 5.14 million tons in 2019, with an average annual growth rate of 6.8%; production increased from 2.6 million tons to 4.1 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 9.5%, which is far higher The growth rate of other chemical products.

From 2014 to 2019, the average annual import volume of butanol was 240,000 tons. After reaching its peak in 2016, due to the large number of new domestic butanol production companies, the annual import volume decreased year by year; the average annual import volume of octanol was 9,000 tons. Imports are small. In addition, according to the analysis of the price of imported butanol, foreign propylene has a price advantage, and for downstream users, imported butanol has a price advantage over domestic ones.

Analysis of production capacity, output, and import and export data from 2014 to 2019 shows that butanol and octanol products are in excess.

2. Market situation of butanol downstream products

1. Butanol downstream product market

Affected by the demand for downstream products, the operating rate of butyl acetate and butyl acrylate is around 60%, and the operating rate of DOP is less than 50%. The production capacity of the products has been seriously surplus. The sales price of butyl acetate and butyl acrylate has been lower than the cost price for a long time, and the production enterprises suffered serious losses, and the enterprises maintained low operation.

2. Octanol downstream product market

The downstream products of octanol mainly include dioctyl phthalate (DOP), dioctyl terephthalate (DOTP), and octyl acrylate. These three products account for 98% of the production capacity of butanol downstream products. The operating rate of these three products is about 60%, and the sales prices of DOP and octyl acrylate are below the product cost, especially the loss of octyl acrylate.

After analyzing the domestic and foreign markets of butanol and the application of downstream products, the production capacity of butanol products has been overcapacity, and the market demand for downstream products is insufficient, and the development momentum is small.