Future Chinese acrylic acid market analysis outlook

1 Analysis of the major factors affecting the acrylic market in 2023

The 2023 propylene price forecast is based on crude oil, coal, and propylene feedstock price forecasts for acrylic materials, combined with previous market data and industry characteristics of propylene, and is expected to be at or near 7750 yuan per ton in 2023 through theoretical cost calculations for different feedstock routes for propylene.  The figure is little changed from 2022. As for acrylic, its cost has not increased significantly compared to the 2018-2022 cost surface due to the large supply of raw propylene and the minor price range adjustment.

In the acrylic industry in 2023, both upstream producers and downstream users continue to expand, the industry size and technology level are becoming stronger, and the concentration of industries has improved considerably, according to the report. The business enterprise resource cycle trade customer activity or will continue to decrease, and downstream consumption end users are stable or will continue to dominate the situation.

For acrylic market trends through 2023, market participants are split: 42 percent bearish, 6 percent bullish, 20 percent stable and 32 percent unclear.Bear mentality: Demand continues to support insufficient and recurring domestic pandemics and foreign economic pressures, all of which constitute pressure on the acrylic market.Bulls are in the mood for a turning point in the epidemic in 2023, coupled with concentrated government stimulus policies, followed by retaliatory consumption and typically low raw material inventories for acrylic users in 2022.  The steady state of mind is: prices have adjusted to their current floor in 2022. Despite the significant increase in supply, overall demand is likely to be little changed from 2022 levels.There are relatively obvious negatives, and prices are likely to continue to fluctuate in a low range.The states of mind that cannot be seen are: domestic and foreign uncertainties, major influences on the acrylic price trend in 2023: whether demand can be disentangled, the effect of macro stimulus policies, existing plant resources for acrylic regulation.

2 Acrylic Acid Market Outlook 2023 in China

The domestic pandemic has added to the uncertainty of economic recovery.Cities at all levels are struggling to find a balance between epidemic prevention measures and economic development.While large-scale lockdowns are rare, temporary street controls and area-wide static management are still having a huge impact on economic recovery.It is expected that the late 2023 domestic economy to expand the effective demand, consolidate the economic recovery foundation, with the continued expansion of the acrylic industry, "price war" corresponding obvious. In 2023, prices are forecast to operate in a relatively low range, with an average annual price forecast of 12,267 yuan per ton.

3 Analysis of the acrylic market in China 2023-2027

Combined with acrylic acid market data in previous years and industry characteristics, acrylic acid price forecast in 2022-2030 is based on propylene raw material price forecast, through 2018-2022 theoretical cost calculation, clear in 2023-2027 cycle cost support price, Then combined with acrylic acid stage supply and demand changes and other factors affecting the medium and long-term product price, the 2023-2027 product price forecast. Annual average prices are forecast to be lower in 2023-2027 than in 2021 and even 2022, with a five-year average of 10,277 yuan per ton.Due to the relatively concentrated investment and construction of domestic acrylic acid in 2025, combined with the shift of foreign installations and demand, it is expected that the acrylic acid price in 2025 or in 2023-2027 in the current low, and then with the increase of downstream demand and the steady expansion of overseas demand, the acrylic acid average annual price or gradual upward repair.