Market Analysis - Monthly Report - October, 2020 - Maleic Anhydride

What's hot and trending this month

1) After the rapid decline of the maleic anhydride market this month, the rapid rebound.

2) Raw materials both increase, and the demand increases slightly.

This month's market summary

In October, the domestic maleic anhydride market first fell and then rose, the price under the high price risk estimate before the National Day has dropped nearly 1000 yuan, and the maleic anhydride fell quickly after the holiday, but then the maleic anhydride rebounded quickly, and the tight spot supply situation stimulated the price to rise broadly, compared to September 30, a decline of 12.79%. National Day before the operation of the maleic anhydride inside the rapid conversion, especially the price of maleic anhydride run to the high warning line level, before the risk aversion to sell out in succession, also accelerate the maleic anhydride decline. The National Day after the maleic anhydride decline expanded, the daily decline reached nearly a thousand yuan, the price reached the buyer's market psychological price, so attract a large number of orders into the market, the factory inventory quickly released, and the main factory foreign trade orders follow up to reduce the volume of domestic trade, the main production area of maleic anhydride supply tension aggravates, also drive the price quickly rebound. Before the end of the month, maleic anhydride factory as a whole can release less spot quantity, so the quantity of limited shipment is in the majority, the shipper also goes along with the market operation, the follow-up still has the opportunity to rise, the downstream just need still has the purchase demand, the high price still has the order transaction also further drives the price up.

Next month market forecast

In November, maleic anhydride market remained opportunity to rise, although into the part of the parking device will resume operation in November, benzene, butane device will achieve high load level, the supply is still are but so far the seller attitude is consistent, negotiable stock quantity is little, factory orders are all in the lifecycle and downstream material holdings are still just need to pick goods under low demand driven by the seller is still there are pull up the mood, real single price also steadily up, follow-up is still rising. However, the range of resin price rising with raw materials is limited, and the maleic anhydride factory has a low price sentiment in the context of a large profit margin. In addition, it should be noted that the divergence of seller's risk aversion mentality after the increase of circulating quantity will also affect the price operation.

Factory stoppages in China

In September, domestic maleic anhydride plants had more temporary shut-down, with the operating rate of about 85%, which is expected to reach 90% in October. 

China's MA export trend in 2019-2020

According to customs statistics, the monthly export volume of maleic anhydride in September 2020 is 3,328.5 tons, and the average export price is $735.33 / ton. The import volume of Maleic anhydride in September 2020 is 225.081 tons, and the average import price is $958.42 / ton.

Note: the general administration of customs will no longer separately release the import and export data of January and February in 2020, but will merge the data in March and release the data to the public in January and February. The total amount will be divided equally.

Summary and views

Maleic anhydride in November after the trend is expected to rise, this round of maleic anhydride recovery faster, the main domestic trade or factory's capacity to reduce flooding buying continuously follow up, and the seller rised continually rotary header, reduce put the cargo to the downstream can spot less, maleic anhydride under the positive drive early November will still be rising opportunity, but this increase is part of the artificial factor, the grocers are hold some inventory, so need to alert to
follow-up with suppliers to take profits, and maleic anhydride downside risk.