2025 Cyclohexanone Market Review and 2026 Outlook in China

December 29th news

I. Review of the Cyclohexanone Market in 2025

In 2025, the downward pressure on China's cyclohexanone market becomes evident.

Data monitoring systems show that in 2025, the cyclohexanone prices in Shandong region of China followed a clear downward trend. At the beginning of the year, the price of cyclohexanone was relatively high, with the market price around 8,800 CNY/ton. As the market supply and demand dynamics changed, the price gradually declined with fluctuations. In the second quarter, there was a significant drop in the cyclohexanone market, from 8,212 CNY/ton on April 1st to 7,250 CNY/ton on June 30th, a price decrease of 11.72%; by the end of the year, the price closed at 6,350 CNY/ton, representing a 27.84% decrease within the year.

II. Analysis of Factors Influencing the Cyclohexanone Market in 2025

(1) Supply-Demand Dynamics: Abundant Supply vs. Weak Demand

1. Supply Side

In 2025, the capacity of the cyclohexanone industry in China continued to increase. The expansion of capacity, combined with stable production by enterprises, led to a continuous release of market supply. The new capacity did not form effective differentiated competition but instead exacerbated the pressure of homogeneous supply.

2. Demand Side

In 2025, the downstream chemical fiber and pharmaceutical industries of cyclohexanone in China mainly adopted rigid demand procurement. The reduction in external procurement demand due to integrated downstream projects, such as the self-sufficiency enhancement in caprolactam and other industries, led to a blockage in the transmission of cyclohexanone market demand. The supply-demand contradiction became the core driving force for price decline.

(2) Cost transmission: Weak raw material prices weigh down on prices.

Pure benzene, as a core raw material, saw its market trend fluctuate and decline in 2025. Prices notably dropped during periods such as April, weakening the cost support for cyclohexanone. Although there were short-term rebounds in pure benzene at certain stages, the overall trend could not change the weak cost situation. The space for cost control and price competition for cyclohexanone enterprises narrowed, and the poor cost transmission further suppressed market prices.

III. 2026 Cyclohexanone Market Outlook: Market Evolution Under Multidimensional Variables

(1) Supply-Demand Dynamics: Capacity Growth Slows, Demand Remains Untapped

1. Supply and Production Capacity

It is expected that in 2026, China's cyclohexanone production capacity will continue to grow, but at a slower pace. Companies will place more emphasis on improving the capacity utilization rate. Leading enterprises will consolidate their market positions through capacity optimization, leveraging their scale and technological advantages. Small and medium-sized enterprises, facing cost and environmental pressures, will have limited capacity release. Production will increase slightly with capacity adjustments, but it will be difficult to fundamentally reverse the situation of oversupply.

2、Demand Side

In 2025, the demand growth from traditional downstream industries of cyclohexanone in China is weak, while the pharmaceutical and pesticide sectors maintain their essential demand. In 2026, it is expected that emerging fields such as new energy materials may become a highlight, with the demand for cyclohexanone in applications like lithium batteries and auxiliary materials for solar cells potentially improving marginally, but it is unlikely to result in significant incremental demand in the short term. Overall, the recovery in demand is slow, and the supply-demand dynamics continue, with excess pressure still present.

(2) Imports and Exports: The interplay between domestic and international markets intensifies.

1. In terms of exports

The export volume of cyclohexanone in 2024 was 74,300 tons. From January to November 2025, the export volume of cyclohexanone was 88,400 tons, an increase of 18.9% year-on-year. In 2026, the export of cyclohexanone is expected to continue to increase slightly. Global demand for chemicals is diverging, and developing countries have potential demand for cyclohexanone due to industrial upgrading, but the increase in exports is limited due to trade policies and fluctuations in freight costs. At the same time, Chinese companies need to compete with international counterparts and seek breakthroughs in price and quality. High-value-added products may become the focus of export efforts.

2. Import Side

From 2018 to 2023, China’s import volume of cyclohexanone fluctuated and declined as Chinese production facilities continued to expand. In 2024, the import volume of cyclohexanone was 196 tons. However, in 2025, China’s import volume of cyclohexanone saw a significant increase: from January to November, it reached 535.6 tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 173%. It is expected that in 2026, the import volume of cyclohexanone will continue to rise. High-quality overseas production capacity may fill gaps in China’s demand for high-end cyclohexanone products—such as high-purity and specially specified grades—thus creating differentiated competition in the Chinese market and compelling domestic enterprises to upgrade their technologies. Overall, while the pattern of imports and exports is unlikely to change significantly, external shocks will still influence the rhythm of price fluctuations.

(3) Price Forecast: Volatile Recovery, Range Trading.

In 2026, cyclohexanone prices are expected to fluctuate around the cost line, responding to marginal changes in supply and demand without exhibiting a clear, sustained upward or downward trend. On the cost side, if the benzene market experiences a temporary rebound due to refining and chemical industry adjustments or fluctuations in international oil prices, it will provide support for cyclohexanone prices. On the supply-and-demand side, if downstream demand recovers more strongly than expected—such as a significant increase in the new energy sector—it could ease excess supply pressure and help prices stabilize. However, given the broader context of oversupply and weak demand recovery, prices will likely remain in a trading range of 6,000 to 7,500 CNY per ton. In extreme cases, sudden factors—such as concentrated plant maintenance or sharp price swings in raw materials—could cause prices to briefly break out of this range, though such spikes would be short-lived.

IV. Conclusion: Opportunities and Challenges Coexist—Focusing on Structural Upgrading

In 2026, the cyclohexanone market in China will still be in an adjustment period. Companies need to focus on technological upgrades (such as green production and high-end product development) and industrial chain collaboration (binding downstream and optimizing raw material procurement) to address multi-dimensional challenges such as supply and demand, costs, and imports and exports. Although prices may not see a substantial reversal in the short term, the emergence of new demands and the acceleration of industry consolidation will accumulate momentum for long-term healthy development. High-quality companies are expected to seize opportunities in the fluctuations and reshape the market landscape.