Styrene will see greater downward pressure in the first quarter of next year

Although the market expects that international oil prices will rise, there is a certain degree of support for the prices of chemical products. However, as the current global styrene plants are less overhauled and the profitability of styrene production is fair, the global supply is expected to increase in the first quarter of next year. EPS, ABS, UPR, etc. are facing a decline in load, so styrene prices are facing downward pressure.

　　 Crude oil market is expected to destock

OPEC+ will increase production by 500,000 barrels per day from January 2021. At the same time, it will hold monthly meetings from January next year to "assess market conditions and decide on further production adjustments next month, with monthly production adjustments not exceeding 50 Ten thousand barrels per day". According to the U.S. Energy Agency’s EIA estimate in December, the global crude oil market will be slightly destocked in 2021. It is estimated that 1.8 million barrels per day will be destocked. The supply gap in the first quarter is relatively large. According to Bloomberg’s assessment, the OPEC+ meeting As a result, the crude oil market will be in a state of destocking until the first quarter of next year.

　　 The current mainstream investment banks are more optimistic about the room for future oil prices. According to the analysis of relevant agencies, the average cost of tight oil in the United States is around US$44/barrel, and the cost of Russian crude oil is at US$53/barrel. As Russia and others mainly refer to Brent crude oil, if Brent rises to more than US$55/barrel, except for oil sands, the basic The cost of other crude oils above can be covered, and according to the major mainstream investment banks’ assessment of crude oil prices in 2021, Goldman Sachs sees it at US$65/barrel, the low price is around US$50/barrel, and the average price is at US$53/barrel. Therefore, if the Brent oil price rises to $53-55 per barrel, the resistance to move forward will be relatively large.

　　 Styrene supply will increase

The styrene plant that has been overhauled in China will basically restart in December. For example, Shanghai Secco’s 650,000-ton styrene plant has been overhauled for 35 days since November 15 and is expected to restart on December 20. Shuangliang’s annual output The 210,000-ton styrene plant will also be opened in mid-December. Therefore, from the perspective of the supply side, the supply of styrene will rebound in the first quarter of next year under the condition that the current installations are not expected to be overhauled.

　　 From the perspective of overseas styrene plant overhauls, most of the styrene plants overhauled in South Korea were restored in November and early December. The Cosmar plant in the United States also restarted on December 5-6, and overseas styrene supply increased.

　　 On the other hand, styrene demand will weaken seasonally. From the perspective of the main downstream of styrene, with the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, the main downstream load of styrene will gradually decrease, and the support for the price of styrene will gradually weaken. Among them, the load drop of EPS and UPR is the most obvious.

On the whole, the current global styrene plants are less overhauled, while the styrene profit is acceptable. The global supply is expected to increase. At the same time, the main downstream PS, EPS, ABS and UPR of styrene are facing a decline in load. Therefore, if the styrene plant is There are not many overhauls, so the downward pressure on Styrene prices in the first quarter of next year will be greater.