Acrylic acid and ester industry chain market may fluctuate at a high level

In February of 2021, the domestic acrylic acid and ester market experienced a historical high in the past 10 years, and the price soared to the extent that the market’s prices changed at the beginning of the day. The prices in the morning and afternoon were again based on this basis. Inquiry panic in the market and the superimposition of exciting offers can be said to be not uncommon in the acid ester market in February.

According to data monitoring, the domestic market for Acrylic Acid and esters steadily increased in the first half of February and pushed up the fault soaring trend in the second half of the month. As of the end of the month, the closing price of acrylic acid in East China was around 10500-11000 CNY/ton, and the monthly average price was up 14.76% month-on-month, and up 25.94% year-on-year. The closing price of butyl acrylate in East China was around 18500-19000 CNY/ton, an increase of 7100-7500 CNY/ton from the closing price at the end of the previous month, and the monthly average price rose 20.65% from the previous month.

The reason for the sharp increase in the trend of acrylic acid and esters this month is mainly due to the multiple favorable boosts of cost, supply and demand.

Among them, on the cost side, the prices of raw materials propylene and n-butanol have been pushed up within the month to provide strong cost support. Among them, the increase of n-butanol is 7,000 CNY/ton, and the increase of propylene is 1,600 CNY/ton. The increase is rapid and the follow-up is strong. For the production of acrylic acid and ester For enterprises, the follow-up costs continue to rise, and the rate of bids and raw materials needs to continue to increase.

On the supply side, the export volume of acrylic acid and esters in China has shown a clear upward trend since the fourth quarter of 2020. Entering 2021, export orders for acrylic acid and esters will increase again due to overseas epidemics, overseas cold waves, earthquakes and other force majeure factors. Domestic acrylic acid and esters In the medium and long term, enterprise inventory has been continuously consumed and the supply exceeds demand. Manufacturers have greatly increased their offers due to the rapid increase in raw materials and strong demand. Before the Spring Festival holiday in February, overseas export orders have been affecting the continued positive factors of domestic acrylic acid and esters. After the holiday, as the domestic spot supply tightens, domestic and overseas demand has increased significantly, and manufacturers' prices have pushed up prices by a cliff, domestic and overseas Order prices continue to rise and follow-up together to promote continuous gains. The overall operating rate of acrylic acid and esters in February was 60-70%, and the overall operating and supply growth rate increased from the previous month. The demand and pre-sales of orders around the Spring Festival holiday brought a major boost to the market’s subsequent views.

In the market, acrylic acid manufacturers increased by around RMB 2,600-2,800/ton during the month. The spot price in the mainstream consumer market in East China rose from RMB 7,500/ton at the end of last month to RMB 10,800/ton at the end of this month, an increase of around RMB 3,300/ton. Spot prices follow up with the latest existing spot quotations, and the actual transaction volume still needs to be gradually advanced. The growth rate of Butyl Acrylate manufacturers was around 7,400 CNY/ton, and the trading price in the mainstream consumer market in East China also rose from 11,400 to 11,500 CNY/ton at the end of last month to the closing price of 18,500 to 19,000 CNY/ton, which was more consistent with the increase in manufacturers.

On the demand side, the overall demand for acrylic emulsions and water-reducing agents in the construction industry has seen a significant increase after the industry returned to the market in late February. The demand boost brought also boosted the confidence in the price of acrylic acid. The overall demand for butyl acrylate downstream tape mother rolls and emulsion industries has recovered. Before the Spring Festival holiday, due to the impact of the domestic epidemic after the holiday and the speed of terminal recovery, the stock volume maintained rigid demand, and the rhythm of returning to the market after the holiday was still frequent.

Looking forward to the next month, the domestic acrylic and ester industry chain market may maintain a high level of shock and consolidation. Entering March 2021, the domestic acrylic acid and ester operating rate will remain at 60%. Large-scale production companies still have a centralized maintenance plan in March. By then, the domestic acrylic acid and ester operating rate will drop to around 5-60%, and the tight spot supply may be possible. continue. For raw materials, the market for propylene and n-butanol may continue to rise steadily, and the cost support for acrylic acid and esters is expected to continue. On the supply side, the favorable stimulus of export orders from March to April is expected to continue. In addition, the manufacturers' maintenance plan continues the tight domestic spot supply, and the intention of the manufacturers to offer is expected to remain firm. In the market, in the first half of March, merchants may continue to follow up with the manufacturers' push, and wait and see the offer, and the price may continue to explore the upward trend. It is expected that the domestic acrylic acid and ester market may fluctuate at a high level, and the specific nodes are still waiting to see the inventory of manufacturers and the situation of downstream orders.