The market price of Glyphosate is 26,000-26,500 Y/T! The future or will continue to pressure downward

Recently, the market price of Glyphosate fell, falling by 2.96%.

The price of Phosphorus declined, weakening the support for Glyphosate. Due to its own supply and demand, high inventory, Glyphosate is difficult to reach an agreement between the upper and lower run-in short term, and the new single follow-up is sporadic, resulting in the overall market weakness, and the center of gravity loosening remains.

Some of the mainstream factories of Glycine in Jilu region continue to reduce load, but downstream demand is slow to follow up, most of them are on-demand procurement, and the price is limited. The demand for PMIDA is cold, downstream on-demand procurement, and the price continues to decline, with the market price reference near 14,500 yuan/ton. The supply of Phosphorus market is more adequate, the downstream procurement pressure price, Phosphorus market transaction center down. At present, the net Phosphorus factory’s acceptance transaction intention price in Yunguichuan area is around 24400-24500 yuan/ton

The production cost of Glycine method Glyphosate is about 25,800 yuan/ton, the new factory price is 26,500 yuan/ton, estimated in addition to the cost of Methyl chloride recovery, the profit of  Glyphosate is 0.07 yuan/ton. It is estimated that the removal of Methyl chloride and Dimethoxymethane can recover the cost, and the profit of Glyphosate is about 0.35 million yuan/ton, and the profit margin is near 13%.

Throughout the year, in the first half of the year, affected by the continued weak demand side, Glyphosate production declined significantly, and Glyphosate production fell by around 40% year-on-year from January to June. In the second half of the year, with the domestic demand, active international demand, costs and other favorable promotion, prices rose, the supply side also synchronous increase, but due to insufficient follow-up at home and abroad demand, the accumulation speed is fast and high, the supply side pressure is obvious, bargaining power weakened, prices continued to decline.

International market channel inventory is high, customers are mostly in the destocking stage, although the north and south, Eastern Europe and other demand to be released, under the psychological stimulation of "buy up do not buy down", the purchase intention tends to be cautious, supply and demand game continues. The domestic market production capacity has been released, the market competition is fierce, and the domestic winter storage progress is slow, the good is limited, the product lacks long-term price support, the product price continues to fall, and the overall market boom has fallen. Current Glyphosate technical enterprise quotation reference 26,500-27,000 yuan/ton, market transaction reference 2.6-26,500 yuan/ton, the actual single discussion.

 Glyphosate order demand is insufficient, sales fell year-on-year, resulting in some companies to increase inventory, in this context, the market formed a negative feedback loop, intensified the terminal wait-and-see sentiment, in the supply and demand side of the abnormal pressure to match Glyphosate in the medium and long term pressure or always exist, market prices do not rule out the possibility of continuing to decline.