Asia-Pacific polyolefin consumption may increase by 6.2% annually in the next 5 years

In recent years, with the high performance ratio of new polymerization processes, new catalysts and general materials, the application fields of polyolefins have become more and more extensive. The development of new chemical materials industry is inseparable from the leading role of the market. The development of new energy vehicles, biology, high-end equipment, new energy, environmental protection and energy saving, rail transit and other industries urgently needs the support of a wide range of functional new chemical materials. Polyolefin, a type of polymer material with the largest output and most applications, is the most widely used in real life due to its rich raw materials, low price, easy processing and molding, and excellent comprehensive performance. Its application in automobiles is becoming more and more important. , And there is a trend of gradual expansion.

The compound annual growth rate of polyolefin consumption in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to reach 6.2% in the next 5 years

In recent years, with the continuous maturity of the polymer market, the development of the global polyolefin business has become more and more perfect. Among them, the Asia-Pacific region controls 45.3% of the global polyolefin market share, firmly occupying the leading position in the global polyolefin market. This area is home to many large-scale polyolefin production plants around the world. It is estimated that in the next 5 years, the compound annual growth rate of polyolefin consumption in the Asia-Pacific region will reach 6.2%. The data shows that the application of polyolefins in my country is mainly concentrated in the fields of CPP, thin-wall injection molding, pipes, BOPP, homopolymer injection molding, fiber, copolymer injection molding, wire drawing, etc. The market share is 1.9%, 3.3%, 4.8%, 8.35%, respectively. , 9.91%, 10.4%, 29.7%, 30.1%.

my country’s polyolefin industry has a structured supply-demand mismatch situation. The market for mid- and low-end products is becoming increasingly fierce, and the supply side will grow rapidly in the next three years. According to statistics, high-end and differentiated products, such as metallocene polyethylene, The consumption of high-end polyolefin grades such as metallic polypropylene, high-carbon alpha olefin copolymer polyethylene, and special polyolefins such as EVA resin, EVOH resin, and polybutene-1 in my country is as high as 11.38 million tons, but the self-sufficiency rate is only 38%. The market potential and development prospects of high-end polyolefins have aroused heights. Companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Sinopec are actively deploying and accelerating the high-end, differentiation and import substitution process of my country's polyolefin products.

At present, the structural contradictions of China's polyolefin industry are prominent. On the one hand, China's polyolefin products are dominated by low-end general-purpose materials, which encourages market competition; on the other hand, high-end polyolefin products are heavily dependent on imports, and the current self-sufficiency rate is less than 30%. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the upgrading of China's polyolefin industry needs to focus on technological innovation in the development of high-end, differentiated, and diversified products. Increase the development and market promotion of high-end polyolefin products such as metallocene polyolefin elastomers, bimodal polyolefins, and ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene, and increase special materials for polypropylene pipes, special materials for capacitor films, and special materials for polyethylene automobile fuel tanks. The production ratio of high-end materials and special materials such as special materials for gas pipelines and special materials for automobile bumpers will enhance the competitiveness of my country's polyolefin industry.

In 2019, Asian ethylene prices showed an "N-shaped" trend as a whole. The average annual price of CFR ethylene in Northeast Asia was US$900.2/ton, a decrease of US$354.3/ton from the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 28.2%. The average annual price of ethylene in CFR Southeast Asia was US$833.2/ton, a decrease of US$321.6 compared to the same period last year. /Ton, a year-on-year decrease of 27.8%.

Ethylene downstream products will be refined and high-end development

In the last century, China introduced a large number of technologies such as polyethylene and polypropylene. Despite the introduction of a large number of brands, they were all bulk primary products, far from achieving the requirements for product upgrades, and the degree of product differentiation was low. At present, the production of high-end engineering plastics in China is dominated by foreign companies' sole proprietorship or joint ventures; the production of general synthetic resins also has the problems of low output of special materials, low grades, and few copolymerized products, which cannot meet the requirements of industries such as automobiles, electronics, and home appliances. The products lack well-known internationally competitive brands and high-end products. In the future, products will be refined and high-end development.

my country’s petrochemical industry has always been dominated by state-owned capital, and the industry’s entry barriers are relatively high. Most petrochemical product markets exhibit the market characteristics of imperfect competition (monopolistic competition). Since the reform and opening up, the private economy has been fully and rapidly developed in some petrochemical downstream industries, which has promoted these industries to enter a fully competitive market to a certain extent. In the future, Sinopec and PetroChina will continue to dominate the supply of ethylene in China. However, with the completion and commissioning of many large-scale emerging private refining and chemical projects such as Hengli Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Liaoning Baolai, the share of private capital in my country's ethylene industry will Substantially increased, the supply will become more and more diversified.

China's polyolefin raw materials and main product market analysis

The ethylene industry is the core part of the petrochemical industry and occupies an important position in the national economy. The world has taken ethylene production as one of the important indicators to measure the development level of a country's petrochemical industry. The downstream of ethylene is polyethylene, ethylene glycol, ethylene oxide, styrene and PVC in the order of demand. As ethylene is extremely difficult to store and transport, the commercialized trade volume is very small, and its prosperity will ultimately be reflected in downstream products. Profitability.

Production and sales of ethylene industry

China's ethylene industry started in the 1960s. In recent years, ethylene production capacity and consumption demand have grown rapidly, becoming the world's second largest producer and consumer country after the United States. The current industrial development has entered the late stage of maturity. China's ethylene production reached 20.523 million tons in 2019, an increase of 2.113 million tons compared with 2018. Among them, ethylene production in December was 1.864 million tons, an increase of 14.6% compared with the same period in 2018.