Supply-Demand Dynamics Drive Slight Rise in Toluene Market

May 22nd, according to the news

According to the commodity market analysis system, from May 15 to May 22, 2026, the toluene market in China saw a slight increase. The price of toluene in Shandong region rose from 6,931 CNY/ton to 7,037.67 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 1.54% during the period.

This week, the Chinese toluene market trended steadily upward, with the overall trading atmosphere gradually warming up and price levels slightly increasing. The recovery in cost fundamentals provided support, with overall stable supply of market goods. Downstream terminal purchasing followed with moderate intensity, and rigid demand procurement dominated market transactions. Under the balance of bullish and bearish factors, regional prices rose steadily.

Cost Side: Crude oil rebounds amid volatility, strengthening cost support.

This week, the Chinese toluene market trended steadily upward, with the overall trading atmosphere gradually warming up and price levels slightly rising. The recovery in cost fundamentals provided support, with the overall supply of goods in the market remaining stable. Downstream terminal procurement followed at a moderate pace, with rigid demand procurement dominating market transactions. Under the balance of bullish and bearish factors, regional prices rose steadily. As of May 21, the settlement price for the July contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $96.35 per barrel, and the settlement price for the July contract of Brent crude oil futures was $102.58 per barrel.

Supply side: Refineries maintain stable supply with manageable inventory pressure.

This week, China's toluene supply remained at a stable level. The main refineries' production facilities operated steadily, with little fluctuation in overall operating load, and the total amount of available goods in the market was sufficient. There were no large-scale plant shutdowns or maintenance in the region, and the impact of a small number of routine inspections on the overall supply volume was limited. Market inventory was within a reasonable range, with no significant accumulation or shortage. Manufacturers' shipping pace was steady, and the overall supply situation was relaxed and orderly.

Demand Side: Essential demand remains weak, while export demand remains decent.

This week, the downstream demand for toluene in China was mediocre, with the terminal industries operating at a moderate level. Enterprises mostly adhered to the principle of replenishing stocks as needed, showing low willingness to stockpile in large quantities. Sectors such as gasoline blending, chemical raw materials, and solvent coatings had limited consumption, making it difficult to strongly drive up market prices. The demand from foreign trade channels, however, was relatively impressive, with stable export orders. This helped to some extent in digesting the existing inventory in China, alleviating the market pressure caused by insufficient domestic demand.

According to the commodity market analysis system, from May 15 to 22, the PX quotes in China remained stable. Sinopec Sales Company maintained the factory price of PX at 9,900 CNY per ton, with this price uniformly applied in the East China, North China, Central China, and South China regions. Major production facilities such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical operated smoothly, and the overall shipping pace was normal.

International market prices for Asian PX on the overseas exchange have weakened in tandem. As of May 14, the closing prices for paraxylene in the Asian region were $1,172–$1,174 per ton FOB Korea and $1,197–$1,199 per ton CFR China. By May 21, the closing prices for paraxylene in the Asian region had fallen slightly to $1,158–$1,160 per ton FOB Korea and $1,179–$1,181 per ton CFR China, reflecting a modest downward trend in the overseas market.

Market Outlook:

The short-term Chinese toluene market will continue to follow a narrow and slightly strong fluctuation trend, with limited space for significant price increases or decreases. The cost side still provides a bottom support, and manufacturers' quotations remain firm; however, the recovery pace of downstream demand in China is slow, and there is resistance to high-price transactions, which will limit the extent of price increases. In the future, it will be necessary to closely monitor the trends in international crude oil, changes in regional inventory, and the purchasing directions of downstream buyers.