Long And Short Factors Are Intertwined, And Polyolefin May Be in The Stage of Digestion And Decline!

Institutions with a bullish view

Guosen Futures, Huawen Futures, Shenyin Wanguo, Baocheng Futures

★Logic:

▪The prospect of Russia-Ukraine peace talks is questioned, crude oil prices are back on the rise, and the cost of petrochemical products is strongly supported;

▪Russia is likely to cut production by 3 million barrels per day next month, and the crude oil market ▪The imbalance between supply and demand is expected to lead to a sharp rise in crude oil prices;

▪The downstream operating rate gradually increased to the normal level, and the peak season on the demand side was late but arrived;

▪PP's current maintenance ratio has increased, and the pressure on the supply side is relatively small;

Institutions with a bearish view

CITIC Futures

★Logic:

▪The Fed will raise interest rates, and it will start to shrink its balance sheet soon, which is bad for the crude oil market;

▪The current downstream order situation is general, and the factory is in a heavy wait-and-see mood, and the excessively high price will have a negative feedback on the downstream;

▪The epidemic affects the recovery of downstream demand and affects logistics and transportation;

neutral point of view

Guotai Junan, Yide Futures, SDIC Anxin, Xinhu Futures, Everbright Futures, Chaos Tiancheng Nanhua Futures

★Logic:

▪ Long and short factors are intertwined, crude oil prices are weak, and polyolefin cost-side support is limited. Although the supply side has slightly increased the maintenance burden of polyolefin units, but the recent logistics is not smooth, coupled with weak downstream demand, the contradiction between supply and demand is still slightly prominent, and the price in the short term May enter the digestion decline stage.