Weight Loss Drug Giant Bows Out, $4.18 Billion Market Shaken

On February 4, Amgen announced the suspension of its weight loss drug AMG 133 (MarTide), a decision that has garnered significant attention. Weight loss medications are currently recognized as "star drugs," with CMB Research Institute predicting that by 2030, medical expenses related to overweight and obesity in China will reach 418 billion RMB. In recent years, the market for weight loss drugs, particularly GLP-1 medications, has rapidly expanded at an annual growth rate of 51%, attracting numerous pharmaceutical companies.

Although Amgen was not the earliest entrant into the weight loss drug market, it had high hopes for AMG 133. Phase II clinical trials indicated that patients could lose up to 20% of their weight in a year. However, the data released in November 2024 did not meet market expectations, causing a drop in stock prices. Additionally, Amgen faced allegations of hiding the impact of AMG 133 on bone density, leading to a market cap loss of nearly $12 billion. Consequently, Amgen chose to halt the drug's development in response to its disappointing efficacy.

Meanwhile, two major weight loss drugs, Novo Nordisk's semaglutide and Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, have recently been launched in China. Semaglutide generated 20.1849 billion DKK in revenue in 2024, accounting for 69.5% of Novo Nordisk's total revenue. Tirzepatide reported $1.9 billion in revenue for Q4, bringing its annual total to $4.918 billion. Both drugs have performed exceptionally well in the market, becoming focal points of competition.

As the patent for semaglutide is set to expire in 2026, domestic generic drug manufacturers are expected to actively seize market opportunities. In contrast, tirzepatide's patent protection still has over 10 years remaining, indicating a more intense future competition in the market. Amgen's decision to suspend development will have profound implications for the overall weight loss drug market.