In 2024, there is still insufficient supply and demand. Which major companies are deploying EVA?

After the Yangzi Petrochemical EVA plant started up on March 3 and opened up the entire process, after more than two months of hard work, it successfully produced qualified EVA products on May 6, marking the successful start-up of the EVA plant and the realization of Yangzi Petrochemical’s An important breakthrough in the field of structural differentiation of plastic products. The device adopts Lyondell Basel's kettle process and is Sinopec’s first 100,000-ton/year production device. Because of its high operating pressure, many interlocking points, and difficulty in operation, it is the first ultra-high pressure device of Yangzi Petrochemical. Similar devices are also one of the few in the world.

EVA production process

At present, there are four main production processes for EVA products at home and abroad: high-pressure continuous bulk polymerization, medium-pressure suspension polymerization, solution polymerization and emulsion polymerization. Among them, solution polymerization and emulsion polymerization processes are less used. Most of the EVA on the market is produced by high-pressure continuous bulk polymerization process, and the VA content is generally 5% to 40%. According to the different reactors used, the high-pressure continuous bulk polymerization process is divided into two production processes: the tubular process and the kettle process. Table 1 is a comparison of the two production processes. At present, the typical processes of tubular polymerization are: ExxonMobil, Lyondell Basel, Imhausem/Ruhrchemie, Russian tubular process, Sumitomo Chemical and VEBLeuna-Werke tubular process, etc. The typical processes of the kettle-type polymerization include DuPont, American Industries, Sumitomo, and LyondellBasell.

China's EVA production enterprises all adopt high-pressure bulk polymerization processes. Among them, the production capacity using the tubular process is 600,000 tons/year, accounting for about 61.73% of the total production capacity; the production capacity using the kettle-type process is 372,000 tons/year, approximately It accounts for 38.27% of the total production capacity.

Judging from the current technological development of EVA resin, EVA resin and LDPE technology are gradually merging. In the LDPE high-pressure polymerization process device, only some auxiliary equipment can be added and a little modification can be used to produce EVA resin. But from the perspective of the development of LDPE, the tube process technology is becoming the main technology used in new installations. More than half of the foreign EVA resin is produced by LDPE equipment. LDPE manufacturers usually adjust the output of EVA resin and LDPE according to the economic benefits of the two.

New changes in EVA demand

China's EVA is mainly used in functional shed films, packaging films, shoe materials, hot melt adhesives, wires and cables, and solar photovoltaics. With the adjustment of the domestic industrial structure, the EVA industry has shown a differentiated development. Foamed shoe materials and films belong to the traditional application fields of EVA resin, and the demand is close to saturation, and the proportion of consumption has shrunk. At the same time, with the development of my country's photovoltaic industry, pre-coating technology and halogen-free flame-retardant cables, solar cells, coatings, wires and cables have become important application areas for EVA resins, and the demand has grown steadily.

In the future, as a new clean energy project strongly supported by the state, photovoltaic power generation will continue to grow in the future. This will vigorously promote the development of my country's EVA downstream photovoltaic industry. The demand for EVA will maintain a rapid growth trend and continue to be the growth of downstream demand for EVA. The leader".

As a new product, pre-coated film has broad market prospects, and the demand for EVA is also increasing year by year. With the development of high technology and the improvement of people's living standards, the demand for EVA is increasing rapidly in the production of films and cables, especially in the fields of EVA film for packaging and halogen-free flame-retardant cable materials. It is estimated that by 2022, China's demand for EVA will reach 2.300 million tons.

China's EVA production capacity

China is currently the largest consumer in Asia. Thanks to the rapid growth of downstream photovoltaic, cable and other industries, China is currently also the region with the fastest growth in consumption in Asia. Table 2 shows my country's EVA production capacity as of 2020, with a total production capacity of 972,000 tons. /year.

The domestic EVA market has always been in short supply. In order to meet the growing demand, EVA manufacturers have implemented expansion plans. Affected by the epidemic, all 4 EVA units originally planned to be put into operation in 2020 have been postponed to 2021, involving 500,000 tons/year EVA capacity. It is expected that 5 EVA units totaling 900,000 tons/year will be put into operation in 2021, and by the end of 2021 , my country’s total EVA production capacity will reach 1.872 million tons/year, and the industrial scale will double. The introduction of new production capacity will enhance the domestic EVA self-supply capacity, while industry competition will also be fierce. Table 3 shows the production status of EVA plans in my country in the past two years.

EVA development trend

In terms of production capacity, in the next few years, my country will still have many companies planning to build or expand EVA resin production equipment. If these equipment can be implemented as planned, it is estimated that by 2024, my country’s EVA resin production capacity will exceed 2 million. Tons/year, the demand will reach about 2.30 million tons. Although China still has plans for multiple sets of EVA resin production equipment in the next few years, since most of them are supporting the production of LDPE, their output is greatly restricted by LDPE, and the increase in output has great uncertainty.

Although the production capacity of my country's EVA resin continues to increase, it still cannot meet the actual domestic demand, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still prominent. Most of the EVA resins produced are of general-purpose grades, and the homogeneity is relatively serious, and the width of the varieties and grades is insufficient, resulting in a surplus of low-end general-purpose products, while high-end products are still mainly imported.

China Taiwan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Singapore will still be the main source countries and regions for my country's EVA resin imports in the future. In the future, the price competition in the domestic general EVA resin market will become more intense.

Due to the lack of industrialized production technology with independent intellectual property rights, the technology used in new installations is still imported technology, with many controlled factors and lack of bargaining chips for technical negotiations.

Development proposals

Speed up the research and development of localization technology, realize the localization of related technology as soon as possible, and avoid the technology being restricted by others;

Continuously optimize and improve the process technology of existing production equipment, further reduce energy consumption and material consumption, and improve product quality;

Vigorously adjust the product structure, actively develop high-performance, high-value-added products, such as the application and development of various film EVA resins, coating resins, and photovoltaic film resins for solar panels, and realize product serialization to improve the company's products Market share and competitiveness to meet domestic actual production needs and reduce dependence on foreign imports;

For some companies that are still planning to install new EVA resin production equipment, it is recommended to fully conduct market research, consider the source of raw materials and the needs of downstream users, and carefully conduct risk assessments to avoid being disadvantaged in the fierce market competition in the future. It is better to adopt the scheme route of LDPE/EVA concurrent production for newly-built devices, so that flexible and flexible production can be carried out according to market conditions;

Pay close attention to the supply and demand of products in Korea, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia and Thailand, where EVA resin is mainly imported in China, so as not to affect the development of domestic EVA resin and related industries.