MTBE Market Prices Decline

April 20th News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from April 13 to 20, the price of MTBE fell from 6,740 CNY/ton to 6,387 CNY/ton, with a price decrease of 5.24% during the period, a month-on-month decrease of 11.49%, and a year-on-year increase of 17.80%. The Chinese MTBE market showed a fluctuating downward trend. Unstable geopolitical conditions and the volatile decline in international crude oil prices have significantly suppressed the Chinese gasoline market, leading to a noticeable drop in prices. Industry participants generally have a bearish outlook on the future, resulting in low purchasing interest in related gasoline components, and MTBE manufacturers are facing difficulties in selling their products.

MTBE China production price average trend chart:

Cost Perspective: Regarding crude oil, international oil prices have declined. The primary negative factors include: the recent signals from the U.S. and Iran about resuming nuclear talks, which have intensified market wait-and-see sentiment and temporarily eased geopolitical concerns. As of April 17, the settlement price for the June Brent crude oil futures contract was reported at $90.38 per barrel.

Demand Side: On the downstream side, international crude oil futures have been fluctuating downward, and refined oil prices continue to fall. Refineries have frequently cut prices and launched promotional sales. However, at this stage, terminal demand has yet to pick up significantly, and social inventories are being digested slowly. Midstream and downstream traders are focusing on selling off existing stocks while making purchases only as needed, resulting in a lackluster trading atmosphere in the market. The demand for MTBE is being weighed down by predominantly bearish factors.

Supply side: Some large manufacturers in China will start operations, potentially increasing resource supply. The MTBE supply side is influenced by positive factors.

As of April 20, statistics on MTBE factory prices from selected manufacturers:

As of the close on April 17, the Asian MTBE market closed at a price that was up $20.82 per ton from the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices ranging from $923.9 to $925.9 per ton. The European MTBE market closed at a price that was down $43 per ton from the previous trading day, with FOB ARA prices ranging from $1,043.99 to $1,044.49 per ton. The U.S. MTBE market closed at a price that was down $56.28 per ton from the previous trading day, with FOB Gulf offshore prices ranging from $1,146.35 to $1,146.71 per ton (323.68 to 323.78 cents per gallon).

Based on spot price big data, the relationship between short-term moving averages and long-term moving averages: 1. "Above" indicates an uptrend; 2. "Entwined" indicates a consolidation trend; 3. "Below" indicates a downtrend. Currently, the MTBE price is at a low level, and the 10-day moving average has crossed below the 20-day moving average, indicating a downward trend in the MTBE market in China.

Market Forecast: The MTBE market is likely to continue its subdued and consolidating trend. With gasoline demand expected to remain weak, manufacturers will focus primarily on boosting sales volume. As a result, the price center of transactions may further decline in the coming period. MTBE analysts believe that the MTBE market conditions are set to keep trending downward.