July China urea market first rises then falls

July 31st, according to reports

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of July 31, the reference average price of urea in the Chinese market was 1,812 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.90% from the reference average price of 1,829 CNY/ton on July 1.

II. Market Analysis

Supply and Demand Situation

This month, the urea market in China first rose and then fell. In the first ten days of this month, the price of urea in China increased strongly. Due to the higher-than-expected Indian tender prices, the sentiment in the nitrogen fertilizer market became more optimistic, boosting the urea market in China, and the price of urea continued to rise. Trading in the urea market heated up, and transaction volumes increased. In the middle and late parts of this month, the price of urea in China weakened and fell. Market inventories remained high, coupled with poor performance in the futures market, leading to a weak trend in the urea market.

Market Conditions

As of July 31, the urea market price in Shandong region was around 1740-1820 CNY per ton, in Hebei region it was around 1750 CNY per ton, in Henan region it was around 1730-1790 CNY per ton, and in Liaoning region it was around 1780 CNY per ton.

According to the weekly K-line chart from May 5, 2024, to July 21, 2025, China's urea prices showed alternating increases and decreases during this period. The largest price increase in July occurred in the week of July 7, with a price increase of 1.65%, while the largest price decrease happened in the week of July 14, with a price decrease of -0.48%.

III. Future Market Forecast

Urea analysts believe that the recent urea market trend is mainly weak and downward. Currently, the urea market supply is sufficient, and demand has not been fully released, coupled with poor performance in the futures market. It is expected that the short-term urea prices in China will remain weak and consolidate.