August 25 news
Today, the spot PVC market continued its weak and volatile trend. Quotations in the Linyi and Zibo regions saw narrow adjustments. Based on the analysis of the mean-reversion indicator, the market is currently in a volatile state with signs of stagnation and price stabilization. Prices over the past year have reached a low level, limiting further downside potential. Overall market dynamics will require close attention to the correlation between futures and spot prices as well as changes in supply and demand across the upstream and downstream sectors.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-24) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-23) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | -5.20 | -19.40 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | -6.50 | 7.90 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 15.90 | 15.60 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current mean difference change direction combination is (+, -, +), corresponding to a stagnation warning (bearish) signal.
Three, Conclusions on Trend Directions
The price trend is oscillating. Reason: The change directions of the three moving averages (5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages) are not entirely consistent with the previous day, which does not meet the criteria for a clear trend. Therefore, it is determined to be an oscillating market, and it is in a bearish oscillating state with a stagnation warning.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
1 year cycle price position: low, with limited downside space;
Price position for the 3-month cycle: Mid-to-low range;
60-day cycle price position: Median.
Overall, prices are in a low range in the long term, and the room for further decline is limited, but attention should still be paid to the short-term volatile and bearish trend.
V. Spot Market Dynamics
Linyi Area: On August 24, the PVC market operated weakly, with futures trading in a consolidation phase. The spot market showed little change, and dealers generally quoted prices at or near the previous levels. The mainstream quotation for the calcium carbide method Grade 5 was in the range of 4,480–4,530 CNY per ton. On August 21, the market experienced a slight decline, with dealers’ quotes falling by 20–30 yuan compared to the previous day; the quoted price range remained the same as on August 24.
Zibo Area: On August 24, the PVC market operated on a weaker note, with prices fluctuating narrowly. Futures prices fell in the afternoon session, and spot prices showed weakness. Dealers’ quoted prices dropped by 10-20 yuan compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream pickup price for the calcium carbide method Grade 5 ranged from 4,480 to 4,520 CNY per ton. On August 20, the market saw a slight decline, with dealers’ quoted prices dropping by 20-30 yuan compared to the previous trading day, and pickup prices ranging from 4,500 to 4,550 CNY per ton.
6. Trend Chart Display
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
