Challenging Bottom Formation: PC Trades Sideways at Low Levels in Early September

September 9th News

Price Trend

According to the bulk commodity list data, at the beginning of September, the Chinese PC market remained stable at a low level, with the spot prices for most grades remaining steady. As of September 9th, the benchmark price for mixed PC was around 14,250 CNY/ton, which is flat compared to early September.

Reason Analysis

Supply Side: Entering September, the operating rates of China's PC polymerization enterprises have been fluctuating narrowly, with a slight decrease from 82% at the end of last month to 79%. The weekly average production level remains above 65,000 tons, with ample supply in the market. Inventory levels remain high, and the abundant supply of PC remains unchanged. Currently, the blow-sweeping task at Lihuayi Weiyuan and the scheduled maintenance shutdown at Wanhua Chemical are nearing completion, and the load at Zhejiang Petrochemical is gradually returning. This indicates an expectation of continued loose supply in the future. The pressure on polymer plants to sell their products remains, and the supply side provides little support for PC prices.

In terms of raw materials: As can be seen from the above chart, bisphenol A saw a significant increase at the beginning of September. Upstream phenol and acetone both showed slight increases, providing some support to bisphenol A. On the other hand, the digestion of inventory by bisphenol A producers has slightly improved the supply situation. However, overall, the cost support effect of bisphenol A on PC is constrained by the supply and demand situation of PC itself.

Demand Side: Currently, the PC market is at the transition point between the traditional off-season and peak season. However, downstream factories have yet to see a recovery in production capacity, with inventory levels remaining weakly driven by essential demand—there’s no sign of proactive stock-building activities. Given the industry’s prolonged lack of market momentum and persistently high social inventories, the market remains flooded with supply, making it difficult for the supply-demand imbalance to improve anytime soon. On top of this, foreign trade orders remain sluggish, putting additional pressure on end-user companies, which are increasingly reluctant to purchase higher-priced materials. Meanwhile, traders are facing mounting financial strain, leading to a rise in price concessions and more frequent transactions conducted at reduced margins. As a result, the pace of goods circulation within the market has slowed significantly, and trading activity continues to be dominated by contract-based deliveries. Overall, demand-side factors are failing to provide meaningful support for PC spot prices.

Future Market Prediction

In early September, the Chinese PC market remained at a low level. The upstream bisphenol A prices increased, and the rise in cost provided some stabilization for PC. The operating rates of Chinese PC polymerization plants were largely stable with minor adjustments, and expectations for the future market are relaxed, with the supply surplus situation remaining unchanged. Downstream demand has not shown any significant increase, and industry players are adopting a wait-and-watch attitude towards the traditional peak season. Currently, PC prices are at historical lows, and it is recommended to closely monitor the consumption situation on the demand side.