Production and Sales Pressure Eases; PC Prices Rise from Low Levels in Mid-January

January 20 news

Price Trend

According to the bulk commodity list data, in mid-January, the PC market in China showed an upward trend at a low level, with the spot prices of most grades increasing. As of January 20th, the mixed benchmark price for PC was around 13,133.33 CNY/ton, representing a change rate of -0.51% from the beginning of the month.

Reason Analysis

Supply Side: Since January, the operating rates of China’s PC polymerization enterprises have remained generally stable with slight upward trends. Earlier, several production lines at Zhejiang Petrochemical underwent rotational maintenance but are now set to resume operations. As a result, the industry’s overall average utilization rate has rebounded to above 81%, with weekly output exceeding 65,000 tons. Thanks to the prior digestion of social inventories, pressure on polymerization plant production lines has eased temporarily, leading to a tight balance between supply and demand in the market. Overall, the supply side’s support for PC prices remains relatively unchanged.

Regarding Raw Materials: As shown in the chart above, the Chinese bisphenol A market experienced an upward trend in mid-January. At the beginning of the month, supply tightened while demand showed marginal improvement. Currently, phenol and acetone prices have risen significantly, strengthening cost support. Driven by the cumulative effect of multiple positive factors, market prices have been steadily increasing, traders are showing strong willingness to hold prices, and overall market trading activity has noticeably picked up. Support for polycarbonate (PC) costs has also improved.

Demand Side: Although the profitability of end-user companies has improved only marginally, downstream PC factories still face less-than-ideal operating rates. However, with a concentrated influx of contract orders entering the delivery phase and localized supply tightening, the market has entered a period of temporary supply-demand equilibrium. Market participants’ sentiment has strengthened, leading to an increase in price-raising actions. Yet, after prices rise, buyers have become more cautious about restocking, and their willingness to build inventories ahead of the holiday season is weak. Overall, demand-side support for PC spot prices remains moderate.

Future Market Forecast

In mid-January, the Chinese PC market saw a slight increase from a low level. The upstream bisphenol A market maintained a positive trend, providing moderate cost support for PC. The operating rates of Chinese PC polymerization plants remained largely stable with minor adjustments, and there was limited news about future maintenance. The market negotiation atmosphere was strong, supporting higher prices, and it is expected that the PC market may see some consolidation in the short term.